Uncertainty still surrounds Wednesday’s severe threat across northern Illinois

3 Things to Watch:

We've got three things to watch in the forecast over the next few days, and each brings a different feel across northern Illinois. 

First up, keep an eye out this morning for a passing shower or storm- nothing widespread, but enough to wear you may run into a few raindrops during the morning commute. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to a better chance for heavier rain and storms as more moisture and energy move in. Severe weather potential locally will all depend on where certain boundaries set up. Then by Thursday, we flip the script entirely, cooler air, a steady breeze, and highs falling back close to 70-degrees.  

Today's Potential:

We'll actually miss out on any severe threat this morning as the main area of low pressure tracks to our north, keeping the stronger dynamics with the associated cold front displaced away from us. 

The Storm Prediction Center instead has a better risk for severe weather focused to the east and south of the Chicago metro, where a level 1 of 5 marginal risk is in place. In those areas, a few storms may be able to produce damaging winds and with extra spin in the atmosphere, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. High temperatures locally will be very similar to the past few days, landing in the low 70s under partly cloudy and breezy conditions. 

Wednesday's Severe:

As we head into Wednesday, we'll be watching the potential for pockets of heavy rain and even a few isolated strong thunderstorms, especially during the mid to late morning hours. 

That early activity will play a role into how things will evolve later in the day, along with where a warm front and any outflow boundaries set up. Right now, most of guidance keep that warm front south of I-88, even south of I-80, which would limit the higher-end severe threat locally. However, if - and it's a big if - if that boundary were to lift north closer to the Illinois/Wisconsin border, that would raise the potential for all severe hazard, including damaging winds, hail, and even a strong tornado or two for areas like Rockford, Belvidere, and Freeport.  

At this point, that scenario appears to be on a lower-end possibility, but it's definitely something to keep a close eye on. For those uncertainties, the Storm Prediction Center has left much of the Stateline under a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms while also upgrading portions of central Illinois and northwest Indiana to a level 4 of 5 moderate risk for severe weather.