While the last month plus has been rather dry across the Stateline, but we may begin to see more of a pattern change on the way before too long. We will see a few chances for at least scattered showers starting late this week and toward the weekend, particularly over Friday.
Another favorable window for some downpours or storms will arrive early next week. Abundant gulf moisture will inch Northward after Sunday, bringing increased rain chances toward Monday-Tuesday in particular. The deeper "Precipitable Water" values indicate more moisture than could be rained out given the right conditions.
Even subtle waves in the atmosphere will be able to produce scattered downpours, and that looks likely between Monday and Tuesday. That rainfall may not be widespread for everyone at any given time, but more locations than not should be able to see some of the beneficial rainfall early next week.
Rainfall coverage will be key in determining how much of the Stateline sees this soaking rain potential versus those who don't. Monday and Tuesday will probably be between 40-60% coverage, meaning only around half of the area will see rain at any given time. I'm not expecting the rain to be overly widespread, meaning there should be at least some dry time between waves of rain.
Even though the rain will not be overly widespread for everyone, the rich moisture will result in heavy downpours when rain does fall. Through the week, that will begin to add up with some rainfall for many locations around the region. Computer models may not have an easy time predicting how much widespread rainfall we will see this far out due to the scattered nature of the showers and storms. That said, there is an increasing chance for most of the area to see a half inch or more of much-needed rain through mid-next week.
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