Scattered strong to severe storms possible Monday evening

 Severe storms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, including a threat for a few tornadoes. Much of the early part of the day will be dry with some lingering wildfire smoke. Air quality will gradually improve through the day as the next weather system brings a stronger Southwest wind by Monday afternoon.

There is a limited chance for a few non-severe storms as early as late morning or early afternoon, but most will end up staying dry. Should those storms develop, they could lay down an outflow boundary on which the next round of storms may initiate. The primary wave of storms will move in after 4PM from the Northwest along a cold front sliding through the area.

Storms could form in clusters or individual supercells. The clusters of storms will have a heightened wind threat, while supercells may have some rotational traits to increase a tornado threat. There are reasonably some regions of the Stateline that end up staying dry. Storms will exit the area to the Southeast after 12-1AM.

There will be a lot of energy for these storms to work with, which is not uncommon for summertime severe setups. There is a little more shear (change in wind speed or direction with height) compared to typical summertime patterns.

As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the Stateline under a Level 3/5 Enhanced risk for severe storms. Damaging wind gusts, possibly in excess of 70 mph, will be the primary threat with these storms. Higher risks for tornadoes should be centered across Northern Iowa and Central/Southern Wisconsin where the wind shear is a little better, but a few isolated tornadoes will be possible across the entire area.

As usual, be sure to stay tuned for updates on the forecast through the course of the day tomorrow. Have multiple ways to receive warnings should they get issued. If you go to bed before the end of the storms, make sure those warnings will wake you up. Have a plan ready to go so you know where to go during a severe storm and be ready to execute that plan should a warning be issued.