Following an exceptionally dry July and worsening drought conditions across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, much-needed rain chances are set to make a return to the Stateline. A slow-moving area of low pressure will drift across the Midwest before gradually tracking across Illinois Saturday, bringing periods of showers, possibly heavy, and thunderstorms back into the forecast.
The first half of the day is expected to remain dry, though clouds will gradually increase ahead of the approaching storm system.
Rain chances will begin to rise as we head toward midday and the early afternoon, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing across the region. Those scattered rain showers will likely linger into the evening hours before a second, more widespread round arrives as we head into the overnight hours as the surface low slides in. If you are heading to any events this evening including City Market, Festa Italiana, or the Ogle County Fair, have an umbrella on hand.
While severe weather is not anticipated near the Illinois/Wisconsin border, a few stronger storms may drift into our southwestern areas. That is where you will find a level 1 Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms, with damaging winds being the main concern. And again, heavy downpours/flash flooding will also be a concern. Further to the southwest is where the highest severe potential (level 2 of 5 Slight Risk) resides where all severe hazards, including a tornado or two, will be possible.
The tougher part of the forecast, rainfall totals. The reason why, forecast models continue to struggle with the exact placement of the center of the low, which determines where the heaviest bands of rain will set up. Right now, most will likely see 1-2" of rain, though it isn't out of the question for there to be very localized amounts above 2". The last time Rockford observed 2+" of rain, 49 days ago on June 11th, the same day of the central Illinois tornadoes.
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