Severe storm potential this evening in Northern Illinois

 [10PM] Our cold front will still pass through the Stateline tonight after 11PM or 12AM with little fanfare. A few light showers may be possible, with a very low chance of any thunder. Our severe threat is over for the night. Next up: a few downright pleasant days and nights starting Tuesday night!

[8:30PM] There are several LP (low precipitation) cells in Central Wisconsin that are producing tornado warnings. Those storms are sliding Southeast along a cold front which would push them well East of the Stateline at their current trajectory. Our attention will remain with any potential development across Northern Iowa and SW Wisconsin for what may move our direction later tonight. At the moment, the earlier round(s) of storms that way have stunted storm growth with a very narrow window of instability that may allow any storms to develop. I continue to watch closely, but widespread severe weather does not appear on the table for us tonight.

[7PM] Storms continue to dive South and East out of the Stateline across Iowa and into Central Illinois with higher potential for severe weather in the short term. Further North, a cold front feature is producing new cells in areas that are starting to re-charge. The timing of those storms into far Southern Wisconsin would not be until after 9PM, which indicates the storms will again be on a weakening trend. While a few isolated instances of severe weather are still possible, that threat is dropping with the later front timing locally. Any storms we do see will wind down or move out of the area after 12-1AM.

[5:45PM] Storms in Iowa maintain their strength in a much more favorable environment, with a few severe storms from West of Davenport over into Central Iowa. Locally, our storms have remained below severe limits with some gusty winds (30-40 mph) and occasional lightning.

With the Southeastern track of storms, a severe thunderstorm watch was extended into Whiteside County and Central Illinois, but the strongest storms through at least 8PM will stay South and West of our local area

The degree of instability we were able to return to the area in advance of thunderstorms was a bit lower, hence the lack of strong or severe storms so far. Notice the higher levels of instability across Iowa, where severe storms have been quite robust with numerous reports of 60+ mph wind gusts and some large hail.

Another area of forcing is set to arrive locally along a cold front after 8-9PM, which will again produce some isolated to scattered storms diving Southeast from Wisconsin. The level of energy ahead of these storms may again be marginal, limiting the severe storm threat for us to a degree.