Strong to severe storms still remain possible overnight into early Monday morning. With the lack of a trigger, the atmosphere has remained calm so far today. But a complex of storms may dive across the area around 5-9AM, bringing strong winds and heavy rain. There is still a low-end chance we see something develop before then, but the main wave looks to arrive early Monday morning.
Models have a very hard time pinpointing exact timing of these sorts of patterns, so do not take this Futurecast picture as gospel. Chances for storms will increase after 5AM, and a severe storm may be possible through the course of the day. Be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and a plan to carry out should a warning be issued.
The influence from that morning complex will determine what, if anything, we see for Monday afternoon. Remnant boundaries, including a lake-enhanced boundary, may induce extra spin to allow for an isolated tornado threat to develop, should any storms form Monday afternoon. Once the cold front clears toward late evening, we will be done with the severe threat.
Outside of the storm potential, it will be another very hot and humid day. Confidence on heat index pushing 105°+ area-wide is not as high Monday as it was Sunday, so the heat advisory was allowed to expire for most. For NW Illinois, it remains in effect through Monday evening. Those who do not see any storms will likely see a heat index well over 100°.
Some wildfire smoke will make a return Monday evening, especially aloft. If any gets trapped under the incoming high pressure Tuesday, we could see some minor air quality concerns. But for now, that smoke does not appear to be all that dense, with forecast air quality in the "moderate" category.
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