After a very wet weekend, the last few days had been a nice break from the rain. But another active pattern will bring us better chances for rain again toward the middle and end of next week, right in time for the flip of the calendar into October.
It all starts with a shift in the upper level pattern over the next week. This coming weekend, blocking between high pressure over the Great Lakes and a strong Nor'easter will keep rain chances to a minimum. But once that pattern releases, a stronger jet will draw more frequent low-pressure systems our direction, beginning Tuesday and Wednesday.
The stronger Southwest direction to the winds near the surface and aloft will work to draw in that much more moisture. As a result, it will be much more abundant compared to this weekend, resulting in better coverage and intensity of rain. Rain chances will begin Tuesday afternoon and could continue on and off through the end of the week. A few thunderstorms may also be possible, with stronger dynamics in place.
The active pattern may continue into the first few days of October as well. The Climate Prediction Center gives Northern Illinois around a 50-60% chance to see above average precipitation between September 30th and October 4th, likely owed to the more active jet stream mentioned above. Looking further ahead to mid-October, we typically get at least one or two shots of chilly fall-like weather, with the first potentially set to arrive around October 5th-8th.
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