Second half of this week more active with frequent rain showers

 Very pleasant, but warm fall-like weather has been the trend this weekend and will continue to be for the first half of the week. But a pattern change is on the way for the second half of the week, including a potential for some pockets of heavy rainfall.

There are still a number of moving parts to the forecast because of a complicated upper-level pattern involving an outgoing Nor'easter to the East and remnants from tropical systems to the West. Because of this, there are some uncertainties that remain. First off, we are confident in the more active pattern as a whole with increasing moisture Tuesday night and Wednesday, with pockets of steady or heavy rain through at least Thursday. But the exact placement of the cold front each day and where the heaviest rain will set up is still in question.

The system has been trending to arrive later and later over the last few days, resulting in a now dry forecast through at least Tuesday evening. Initial showers may not even arrive until Wednesday morning with drier air still in place ahead of the cold front.

But the slow-moving nature of the front will allow moisture to build in along it, producing pockets of steady to heavy rain particularly Wednesday night through Thursday. A few locations may be able to see more than an inch of rainfall, especially if the cold front stalls out overnight. Showers will eventually exit the area as higher pressure arrives from the Northwest, bringing an end to the rain by Friday afternoon. Cooler air will then follow with afternoon highs in the mid-60s next weekend.