Illinois on the brink of 200 tornado reports after recent outbreaks

Active Father's Day:

It's hard to believe that just last Friday, we were discussing about how Illinois had already surged past 160 tornado reports this year - a number that, on its own, already signaled an incredibly active season. Fast forward just a few days, and the atmosphere has only added to that mind-boggling total. 

Tornado Reports: 

After yesterday's tornado outbreak in central and southern Illinois, the statewide count is even higher, now sitting just a handful of reports shy of 200. 

What's even more staggering is how Illinois stacks up against the traditional severe weather hotspots. If you combine the total number of tornado reports from states like Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas - they only edge out Illinois by four reports.

Less Active For Now:

Thankfully, Illinois finally gets a chance to catch its breath over the next few days. After an intense stretch of severe weather, the threat or highest potential will shift out of the region, moving into the Mid-Atlantic, as well as back west along the Rockies.  

Seasonably cool this week, summer-like heat returns next week

 Steady showers will clear out Sunday night, leaving us drier into Monday morning. While an isolated sprinkle cannot be completely ruled out Monday or Tuesday, most will remain dry as high temperatures reach the mid/upper 70s. Very similar temperatures are forecast through this entire week, with afternoon highs ranging between 76-77 every day through Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday, but much of the remainder of the week looks drier.

However, the cool and comfortable pattern we have been in will not last much longer. There is an increasingly strong signal to see the summer-like pattern return beginning late next weekend. The long-term outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center support this, giving the Stateline a 50-60% chance to see above average temperatures between June 29th-July 5th. That would indicate more 80s and possible 90s on the way, more like what we come to expect in July. The warm-up also looks to arrive with much more humidity and storm chances as well. So, enjoy the 70s while they last!

Wet and cool Father's Day with steady rain showers

 Unfortunately, the forecast for Sunday is not nearly as pleasant as Saturday was with steady rain arriving by early afternoon. Rain will begin as early as 9-10AM for some of our Southwestern Counties and continue to spread Northeast through early afternoon. Southeast Wisconsin may not see rain start until after 12PM.

Steadier rain will be likely for everyone by early afternoon, with hourly rainfall rates near 0.25"/hr at times. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible as well, particularly in Southern portions of the area. While the heaviest rain will exit after 6PM, pockets of light to steady rain will persist into the night.

Temperatures will reach into the low 70s before/as rain starts but drop through the afternoon into the mid-60s as rain picks up in intensity. Winds will also pick up through the afternoon, gusting near 25-30 mph at times from the East.

Rainfall will add up much quicker for some compared to others. South of I-88 will see the highest rainfall totals, with some picking up between 1.0-1.5" or more. Between about I-88 and the IL/WI state line, you can expect between 0.5-1.0" of rain. Far NW Illinois and Southern Wisconsin may only see 0.25-0.5" of rain.

Illinois surpasses 160 tornadoes in 2026

It's been an incredibly active tornado season across the Illinois this year, with more than 160 preliminary tornado reports as of June 18th.

And given recent severe weather events, that number is likely still climbing. That total is 37 higher than all of last year and puts Illinois well ahead of the rest of the country, more than doubling Mississippi, which ranks second with 83 tornadoes. 

From early-season setups to multiple rounds of severe weather, the atmosphere has consistently favored storm development, fueling a prolonged stretch of frequent tornadic activity in recent years. And with the summer months still ahead, Illinois's tornado count will likely climb as we transition into M.C.S (mesoscale convective system) and Derecho season. 

Father’s Day Weekend: Sunshine first, then changes

Shower Chance Late:

Yesterday was about as good as it gets - a perfect 10 out of 10 with sunshine, comfortable temps, and a light westerly breeze. Today doesn't quite match that, but it's still solid - more like an 8.5 out of 10 as we look to stay dry for most of the day. However, a weak system diving in towards the evening will bring an increase in cloud cover and the chance for a few showers, possibly an isolated storm.   

Father's Day Weekend:

Father's Day weekend will have a great start. High pressure settles in Saturday, bringing plenty of sun and comfortable highs in the upper 70s. Sunday for Father's Day itself, looks quiet early on, but clouds will gradually increase as the day goes on, with chances building into the afternoon as a area of low pressure slides to our south. Temperatures will be a bit cooler, holding in the upper 60s.  

Sunday Severe?:

Thunderstorms will be possible, but the better ingredients for severe weather are expected to stay well to our south - roughly in the same areas that were impacted by Wednesday's tornadoes.  
 

Father's Day weekend: Seasonably cool with periodic rain

 This Father's Day weekend will not feature the heat and humidity we typically expect in mid-June, but scattered showers may be possible from time to time. High temperatures may get close to 80 degrees Friday and Saturday, but that is still below the average highs of low 80s that is typical for mid-June. Sunday will be even cooler with widespread rain and clouds.

Friday evening is not rain-free either. A few stray showers may be possible mainly after 6-7PM across the area. While rain will not fall very hard, it may be enough to dampen the ground and the grass where it falls. There is also a very limited chance for a stray rumble of thunder, maybe around 10% during the evening. Be sure to have an umbrella handy if you are outdoors!

While Saturday will be dry, Sunday will bring a much broader chance for shower and a few embedded storms. A large-scale low pressure system will track along Central Illinois, bringing a lot of moisture with it. While we are on the Northern end, widespread showers and even some thunderstorms will be likely starting Sunday morning, lasting through much of the day. All told, a few spots may get upwards of an inch or more of rain between Sunday and Sunday night!

If you have any outdoor plans for Father's Day weekend, Friday afternoon or Saturday will be your best windows for activities. Scattered rain chances will move in by Friday evening and then more widespread rain arrives Sunday. Happy Father's Day!

Severe potential fades across northern Illinois, quieter days ahead

Active Wednesday:

Yesterday's severe weather unfolded a bit differently than it could have, thanks in large part to a morning round of strong thunderstorms. 

This, like last Thursday, helped take the edge off the atmosphere across northern Illinois by overworking the air mass, limiting how unstable things could have become later in the day, ultimately pushing the more significant threat for severe weather to the south. While conditions were less favorable locally for widespread severe storms, the system still managed to produce one tornado in southern Wisconsin. Details on that tornado, including strength and exact path, will be evaluated in the coming day.  

Less Active Days Ahead 

In the wake of that system, we settle into a much quieter and more tranquil stretch of weather heading into the next couple of day. Partly cloudy skies will help make for a pleasant day overall, with a steady breeze out of the northwest keeping afternoon highs in check. Expect us to top out in the low 70s, still a good amount below late-June standards. While most of today stays dry, a weak system sliding in this evening could spark an isolated shower, but coverage remains limited and impacts minimal. 

Friday brings a subtle warm-up as winds shift more westerly, helping temperatures climb back into the upper 70s, much closer to where we should be for this time in June. Along with the warmer air, we'll also have a chance for a few scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Coverage, like today, doesn't look to be widespread at this point. 
 
 

Old Settlers Days forecast: Isolated rain chances ahead

 Old Settlers Days will not feature the typical heat and humidity we expect from mid-June, but will have periodic chances for rain. Temperatures will range from the upper 60s Sunday to the upper 70s Saturday. There are a few slim chances for rain Thursday and Friday evenings, with higher coverage of rain possible Sunday.

The chances for rain Thursday and Friday evenings will be relatively limited, with only a few stray showers after 6PM each night. Rainfall does not look to come down very heavy, and many spots will be dry at any given time. But if you're heading out, you'll want to make sure you have the umbrella handy!

Better coverage of rain will be possible Sunday with a broader low-pressure system moving through the region. The center of the low will pass South, keeping any strong storm threat mostly downstate, but a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible locally as well. Sunday may not quite be so favorable a day to be outside, so be sure to make your OSD visits by Saturday if you want nice weather!

Wednesday afternoon weather update for northern Illinois

 

6:46pm Update: New: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for northern Green and northwest Rock counties in southern Wisconsin until 7:45pm. Storm is moving east at 45 mph and capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts.

 

5:45pm Update: A TORNADO WATCH has been issued for Green County in southern Wisconsin until 9pm Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms have developed along what meteorologists refer to as the 'triple point'. This is where a low's warm front, cold front, and occluded front come together. Often times this can help enhance the spin in the lower levels of the atmosphere, which is what has happened with the thunderstorms that have moved into southwest Wisconsin.

While the severe threat remains limited for us this evening, we still do have the cold front and low-pressure system to get through this evening. And that may allow for at least an isolated severe storm to impact part of the viewing area through 9pm.

The showers and thunderstorms from this morning have really kept our atmosphere cool and stable. Current temperatures (as of 1pm) are in the mid and upper 50s with a brisk southeast wind. The storm complex from the morning developed a little further south and has pushed the system's warm front down into central and southern Illinois. While there will likely be some shift in the front to the north it'll more than likely remain in central Illinois, and this is where the highest threat for the more significant severe weather looks to remain.

Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center shifted both the 'enhanced risk' (level 3/5) and 'moderate risk' (level 4/5) southward a bit. Northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin remain within a 'slight risk' (level 2/5) for the rest of the afternoon and evening.

So, what does this all mean for our weather going forward? We'll continue to see a few scattered showers throughout the afternoon as temperatures are likely to creep back into the 60s. There is some clearing taking place over Iowa with the cloud cover and this is slowly starting to allow some instability to build back north into southern Iowa. As the system's cold front and low pressure move east, we will likely see some higher instability develop along the Mississippi River and into parts of northern Illinois through early afternoon. This will keep at least an isolated severe risk going through about 8pm/9pm locally until the cold front passes. The main hazards with any storm that would turn severe would be primarily wind.

Our window for the next round of thunderstorms we'll need to keep an eye on will be from roughly 5pm/6pm through 8pm/9pm.  

Strong winds possible in the wake of morning thunderstorms

Behind this morning's round of storms, we're now watching for the development of a wake low. This can lead to a quick surge in winds even after the storms move out and push to our south. 

For this, a Special Weather Statement has been issued for the highlighted counties until 12:30PM. These winds can be strong enough to blow around loose objects around, down small tree limbs, and could make travel, especially for high-profile vehicles - a bit more difficult at times. Use extra caution. 

On top of that, the National Weather Service placed Winnebago, Boone, Ogle, Lee, and DeKalb County under a Wind Advisory. 

This will be in place until 1PM this afternoon, mainly for the winds associated with the wake low. 
 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING Issued For Portions of Carroll, Whiteside County

 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING has been issued by the NWS for portions of Carroll and Whiteside Counties until 8:30. This storm will be capable of 70 mph wind gusts and spotty small hail. 

Trained weather spotters have reported 70 mph wind gusts with this storm. Some areas have seen 80-90 mph wind gusts. For timing information, see the below graphic.

 

Severe thunderstorm watch issued for some

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Whiteside, Carroll, and Jo Daviess Counties until 11 AM. 

 

 

  

Strong storms to the west across central Iowa will approach these counties, posing a risk for damaging winds and large hail. Stay weather-aware!
 

Heavy rain, severe storms possible across northern Illinois today

Latest on Severe Potential:

Uncertainty #1 with today's severe weather threat is already becoming apparent this morning. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is pushing into portions of eastern Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. 

How long this activity holds together - and how the atmosphere recovers behind it - will play a major role in the Stateline's severe weather potential later today. IF storms linger, they could limit instability, and the added cloud cover and rain may slow the northward push of the warm front. This could ultimately temper with the strength and coverage of severe storms this afternoon and evening. With that being said, today will be a "play it by ear" kind of day. Meaning, we have to monitor and see how things go as the day progresses. 

Heavy downpours is certainly on the table, especially with the batch of storms expected to move through this morning. IF the warm front is able to lift north into the I-88 corridor, all severe weather hazards, including a few tornadoes, would become possible, especially along and south of the front where the ingredients for severe weather is much higher. Even areas north of the warm front could still see severe weather, though the primary threat would lean more towards damaging straight-line winds.   

In the latest outlook, the Storm Prediction Center left much of the region under a level 2 of 5 Slight risk for scattered severe storms with locations along and south of I-88 under a level 3 enhanced risk. Further south, a level 4 of 5 Moderate risk remains in place for those across central Illinois and eastern Indiana. 

  

MyStateline+ App: 

Be sure you have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings throughout the day. Have alerts enabled on your cell phone, NOAA weather radio, and make sure to have the MyStateline+ App downloaded to stay up to date with live coverage. 

  

Cool Thursday:

Behind today's frontal passage, conditions become less active but cooler for Thursday. With a steady west-northwest breeze in place, afternoon highs will be limited to the low 70s once again. 

 

Uncertainty still surrounds Wednesday’s severe threat across northern Illinois

3 Things to Watch:

We've got three things to watch in the forecast over the next few days, and each brings a different feel across northern Illinois. 

First up, keep an eye out this morning for a passing shower or storm- nothing widespread, but enough to wear you may run into a few raindrops during the morning commute. Tomorrow, the focus will shift to a better chance for heavier rain and storms as more moisture and energy move in. Severe weather potential locally will all depend on where certain boundaries set up. Then by Thursday, we flip the script entirely, cooler air, a steady breeze, and highs falling back close to 70-degrees.  

Today's Potential:

We'll actually miss out on any severe threat this morning as the main area of low pressure tracks to our north, keeping the stronger dynamics with the associated cold front displaced away from us. 

The Storm Prediction Center instead has a better risk for severe weather focused to the east and south of the Chicago metro, where a level 1 of 5 marginal risk is in place. In those areas, a few storms may be able to produce damaging winds and with extra spin in the atmosphere, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. High temperatures locally will be very similar to the past few days, landing in the low 70s under partly cloudy and breezy conditions. 

Wednesday's Severe:

As we head into Wednesday, we'll be watching the potential for pockets of heavy rain and even a few isolated strong thunderstorms, especially during the mid to late morning hours. 

That early activity will play a role into how things will evolve later in the day, along with where a warm front and any outflow boundaries set up. Right now, most of guidance keep that warm front south of I-88, even south of I-80, which would limit the higher-end severe threat locally. However, if - and it's a big if - if that boundary were to lift north closer to the Illinois/Wisconsin border, that would raise the potential for all severe hazard, including damaging winds, hail, and even a strong tornado or two for areas like Rockford, Belvidere, and Freeport.  

At this point, that scenario appears to be on a lower-end possibility, but it's definitely something to keep a close eye on. For those uncertainties, the Storm Prediction Center has left much of the Stateline under a level 2 of 5 Slight Risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms while also upgrading portions of central Illinois and northwest Indiana to a level 4 of 5 moderate risk for severe weather. 
 

 

Cooler pattern remains, few storm chances ahead

 Much of the week ahead will be characterized by cooler, more refreshing weather. Heat and humidity are a combination not seen in the immediate forecast, keeping afternoon highs in the 70s for the next several days. Overnights will be downright refreshing, with most low temperatures in the mid 50s or cooler!

But that pattern does not come without rain and storm chances. Our first potential arrives with a quick-moving wave to the North early in the day Tuesday. This will produce some isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Our severe weather looks very limited locally, but a storm or two may perk up and produce some strong winds or large hail across far Eastern Illinois into Indiana. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 1/5 Marginal risk in place for areas South and East of the Stateline. Much of the day will be dry locally over toward Northern Illinois.

A more potent and dynamic system will arrive Wednesday. This storm threat will be much broader with better ingredients for severe weather across much of the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Multiple waves of showers and storms will be possible, with some storms strong to severe.

The highest confidence of severe weather looks to be centered South of Northern Illinois with limited moisture and instability this far North. Dynamic systems like this have a tendency to make up for limited ingredients, so a few severe storms may still be possible locally. Exact timing will depend on the track of our surface low pressure. But for now, keep tuned as the forecast will likely evolve as we get closer to the event!

Rockford Ironman race weather forecast

 Radar may look a little daunting around daybreak Sunday with some isolated to scattered showers before 5-6AM. But that rain will clear before too long, exiting the area by 6-7AM. That will leave far less cloud cover and a good bit of sunshine once the sun rises.

Rockford's Ironman 70.3 race will begin at 7AM Sunday with temperatures in the low 60s and they will only warm into the low 70s. Humidity will be trending down through the day, with dew points falling to the 40s. The only minor impact from ideal race conditions will be a stout Northwest wind, gusting near 30 mph at times. Good luck to all the racers!

Breezy Saturday with scattered thunderstorms

 After a pleasant and comfortable Friday, some scattered thunderstorms may return Saturday. Winds will gradually turn to come back out of the Southwest for Saturday, with some gusts pushing 25-30 mph at times.

That Southwest direction will draw in moisture return, with dew points rising back through the 60s. That increase in moisture will be met by an incoming cold front, producing some scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. We may end up dry through mid-day, but chances for rain will creep up through the afternoon.

A few of these storms may be able to perk up and produce gusty winds and small hail. While the storms will not be very widespread, any storms that track over recently rain-soaked locations may pose a slim risk for some flash flooding. Any risk for strong storms will decrease after 10-11PM. A few showers may linger into the early half of the night, but in lesser coverage. Conditions will dry out by daybreak Sunday morning.

A few of the storms Saturday afternoon and evening may be able to reach severe limits. Much of the Stateline is under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk, indicating only a few isolated storms may reach severe limits. Southwestern parts of the Stateline, including Savanna and Sterling, are under a Level 2/5 Slight risk with slightly higher confidence on storm coverage. Our threats will only be with wind and hail, tornadoes are not a concern locally. The environment is not nearly as volatile as it was Wednesday or Thursday.