Friday, February 5, 2010

Snow will fall - just not yet

The radar returns this morning were indicating snow was falling but nothing was reaching the ground yet. The reason for that, east winds and dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere (roughly 1000 to 3000 ft). Looking at the thermal profile from Davenport we can see that the dew point is very dry so any precipitation that falls within that layer will likely evaporate before reaching the ground. The first image on the left is the sounding from Davenport for last night. The line on the left is the dew point profile all the way up through the atmosphere, while the line of the right is the temperature profile. Without getting into too much detail, temperature is on the bottom (the blue numbers and in °C) and the height is on the left. Notice how the dew point line at about 900mb falls back to -20°C. That's dry air! Now, look at the second image from the sounding this morning. Still from Davenport, notice how the dew point line is much closer to the temperature line. This means that the atmosphere is now beginning to saturate and snow will likely be able to reach the surface, but it will take awhile. At the onset, it may actually mix in with a little sleet because there is a slight warm layer aloft. Accumulations won't amount to much for today. Temperatures will stay in the low 30s for this afternoon.

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