Saturday Weather Update

The weather picture is becoming a little more clear regarding what is going to happen with storms Saturday and Saturday night.  While there are still finer details that need to be hammered out we can give you a little better picture as to what will happen.

A strong mid-October storm system currently in the southwest will move into the Plains Saturday and Great Lakes by Sunday.  Friday evening will remain quiet until high pressure slides east and a warm front currently to the south lifts north.  As the front pulls north moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will also lift north increasing cloud cover as well as bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin by Saturday morning.  The storms that are expected to develop overnight and into the morning likely will remain below severe criteria as they will mainly remain elevated due to the cool air mass across the Great Lakes.  Because of the elevated nature of the storms hail would be the primary concern.  As of right now it looks like the majority of the morning and even into the early afternoon may remain cloudy with scattered showers/storms with the warm front remaining just to the south of the Stateline and moisture overrunning the front.  Severe weather late Saturday morning and into the afternoon look to be more likely across Iowa, Missouri, Kansas and Oklahoma right ahead of a cold front.

Looking at some of the latest morning model runs and it appears as if the surface low won't be as strong as initially indicated as it moves into the Great Lakes late Saturday night.  This, to some extent, may play a role into the degree of severity of storms across the Plains.  Cloud cover from storms Saturday morning may not break soon enough to allow enough heating for surface based storms to form from mid-Missouri northeast into Illinois during the afternoon.  Another factor that could limit the severe potential for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin is the timing of the front.  The whole system has slowed down and this in turn has delayed the passage of the cold front with the front now coming through Sunday morning.  If a line of storms do form out west along the front Saturday afternoon they would likely arrive here after dark decreasing the severe weather threat.  The Storm Prediction Center continues to have a slight risk for severe weather for the Midwest with a greater potential further southwest (outlined in the red on the map above).  Timing wise for all of this it looks like the rain from Saturday morning may taper some after 1pm/2pm and then redevelop after 6pm and continue east into the overnight.  It's important not to follow these times too closely as these likely will change by tomorrow morning.

Another threat tomorrow will be the heavy rain.  Atmospheric moisture continues to run well above average with this system so heavy rainfall will also be likely for some, especially along and north of the warm front and right ahead of the cold front.  Updates will continue to be found here throughout the evening and especially Saturday.  Be sure to check back often.  Don't forget you can always get your weather updates via facebook and twitter.  Just click on the links to the right.