Monday, May 20, 2013

Monday afternoon weather update

It's a somewhat complicated weather scenario playing out early this afternoon.  Sinking air behind the showers that moved through this morning has allowed skies to clear, but temperatures only remain in the upper 70s/low 80s.  Dew points are a little more dry than what they were Sunday keeping humidity levels slightly lower.  As of right now the only storms really worth while have been what's been forming in northern Missouri.  Should that cluster hold together it's possible that they would move into Northern Illinois late this afternoon.  If not, then we would have to focus our attention to any development out west in Iowa.

At this moment, there appears to be a lack in a significant trigger mechanism for storms to develop along.  There is an upper level disturbance moving out of the central Plains but that isn't expected to move in until this evening.  Also, looking at some of the upper air parameters and it looks like the better moisture remains to the south of northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Due to this, there will likely be a few more dry hours under mainly sunny skies as the instability seems to be lacking just a little.  While I wouldn't let my guard down just yet, it seems as if the start of any storms may be fairly slow pushing back the threat for storms until possibly later this evening.

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