Dry and warm Friday ahead, storm chances quick to follow

Significant improvements moved in Thursday as much of the region got to enjoy loads of sun with highs peaking around the 50° mark.

Those improvements are set to carry on into Friday, especially during the daylight hours. Conditions will remain dry under a mix of clouds and sun, with highs falling short of the 60° mark by 1°.

Cloud cover does increase shortly after the evening commute. This is all thanks to a lifting warm front that will also contribute to the likelihood for showers and storms. These will initiate over eastern Iowa, spreading over N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin during the evening and overnight hours. 

Most will end up under severe criteria, producing heavy downpours and lightning. However, hail will be possible with the strongest updrafts. That is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed a majority of the Stateline under a level 1 of 5 Marginal Risk. Rain chances carry on into the early morning hours of Saturday, though should come to an end prior to daybreak. From there, we can expect cloud cover to hang tight into Saturday afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the upper 50s. 

Easter Sunday appears to start off quiet, though there will be much more in the way of cloudiness. 

A sprinkle or light shower will be possible around the lunch hour, though rain chances will start to become  likely once again by Sunday night.

 

 

Forecast models carry these rain chances into the start of April as another potent storm system glides through the Midwestern states.  

One that will bring a more significant threat for severe weather across Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. The severe threat locally will all depend on how far north the warm front ends up.

For the time being, guidance keeps this warm front south of Interstate 80, landing us on the more stable side of the boundary. This will leave winds blowing off of Lake Michigan, placing highs near the 50° mark Monday. Conditions will progressively dry out as we enter the middle of the week. Expect highs to cool slightly, landing in the upper 40s both Tuesday and Wednesday!

Cubs and White Sox kick their seasons off with some sunshine

Spring is my favorite of the 4 seasons for a multitude of reasons. Temperatures gradually warm, flowers start to bloom, and of course I do love springtime thunderstorms. But one of the main reasons why I love spring, baseball season gets underway! 

For Milwaukee Brewers fans, you'll have to wait until Friday as today's game against the New York Mets was postponed due to inclement weather. For the White Sox and Cubbies, the forecast looks great with both games featuring a decent amount of sunshine. Of course with the Cubs starting their season against the 2023 World Champs in Arlington, TX, temperatures will be MUCH warmer than in Chicago.

Locally, expect similar conditions to what those will experience at Guaranteed Rate Field today, mixed sunshine with highs in the upper 40s. 

A lifting warm front may pose a threat for a passing shower or two, especially for those who live along and south of Interstate 88. From there, skies remain partly cloudy overnight, with temperatures falling back into the low 30s.

Most of Friday will be dry, with highs peaking in the upper 50s under partly cloudy skies. It's towards the late-day hours where this warm front will play a role in even higher rain chances, one that does include the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

Current thinking suggests that thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday morning won't pose a threat for severe weather. However, the Storm Prediction Center has kept all of N. Illinois and S. Wisconsin under a general (non-severe) thunderstorm risk. Meaning, storms will only pose a threat for heavy downpours, lightning, and even small sized hail with the strongest updrafts. Any chance for rain should be out of the region by sunrise Saturday morning.

Rain chances return for the weekend

 

Skies turned partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon with high pressure moving into the Midwest, warming temperatures into the upper 30s and low 40s. Rockford's high reached 43 degrees, still roughly 10 degrees below average.

Under a mostly clear sky Wednesday evening temperatures will fall to the mid-20s before cloud cover increases from the west. This will turn our skies mostly cloudy for the start of Thursday. Temperatures Thursday will warm close to 50 degrees with a little more sunshine for the afternoon.

Westerly winds Thursday will turn to the northeast as high-pressure slides across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Friday. This will cause a frontal boundary to 'tighten' up, so to speak, with temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s across central and southern Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. Depending on how far the warm front reaches into the northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, highs locally could warm close to 60 degrees. Cloud cover, however, will be on the increase as moisture increases Friday evening.

Rain chances will then return after sunset Friday, continuing into the overnight before coming to an end Saturday as low pressure sinks to the southeast. Temperatures Saturday will warm close to 60 degrees.

With the system stalled to the south Sunday there may be just enough lift to give us a few scattered rain showers Sunday afternoon and evening, but a better chance for rain returns with another low

moving into the Midwest Sunday night and Monday. Depending on the track of this low a round of heavy rain, and possibly stronger storms, will be possible through Monday night.

Cooler, breezy Wednesday ahead

A strong spring storm system made for a rather unpleasant start to the work week. One that featured plenty of rain and a rather strong wind.

All in all, Rockford observed nearly 2" of rain while also observing a peak wind gust of 46 mph! With the cold front now to our east, winds will be cooler out of the west for our Wednesday. This will help bring temperatures down briefly before a warming trend commences ahead of the Easter holiday.

Winds won't be as strong today, though we may see gusts up to 30 mph from time to time. This will leave temperatures in the upper 20s to start, with highs peaking in the low 40s this afternoon. 

On the plus side, high pressure settles in behind this week's rain-maker, allowing skies to gradually clear throughout the early morning hours. Winds remain breezy overnight, cooling low temperatures back in into the mid to upper 20s. 

We do see a warming trend begin Thursday as highs look to climb back towards the 50° mark. All under a mix of clouds and sunshine. 

 A warm front lifting in from the south will help push temperatures near the 60° mark Friday and Saturday.It will also bring our next chance for rain. 

 Now, it goes without saying that Friday's chance won't be as significant and widespread as the rain that passed through Monday into Tuesday. It's more of an isolated threat with severe weather not being a factor at this moment in time. Heavy downpours and lightning being the biggest concern with any thunderstorm that develops. From there, rain will become more likely into Saturday as low pressure swings through northern Illinois. 

Rain chances, gusty winds carry on into our Tuesday

Monday was a huge day for the rainfall department as Rockford picked up 1.68". This marked the first time since October 13th where the airport observed 1.5" or more rain in a single day! 

The rest of locales landed in the .50"-1.0" range. With the strong storm system responsible for yesterday's rainfall and gusty winds spiraling close by, Tuesday will feature more of the same.

Rainfall today won't be as intense. In fact, coverage will become more scattered following the cluster of showers currently passing through. 

As we discussed yesterday, the incoming low may result in a strong storm or two, mainly during the mid-morning to noon time frame. That's IF low-level moisture is sufficient enough. Otherwise, the Storm Prediction Center has continued to keep the more conducive environment to our east.

Similar to Monday, today's scattered rain will come with a rather strong wind, at times stronger than Monday. Winds may gust up to 40 mph, especially during the afternoon hours.

These will be much colder winds, allowing temperatures will top out in the low 50s before mid-day, then falling quickly into the mid to upper 30s by the time dinner hits the table.

The cooler air spilling in will make for a much cooler Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to peak in low 40s under partly cloudy skies. High pressure will keep us dry into Thursday, with temperatures ending up back near the 50-degree mark.

Will the total solar eclipse impact the weather across northern Illinois?

Even though totality lasts a few minutes, you may notice some small changes in the weather. 

Before my move to Rockford, I lived in Kansas City, Missouri at the time the last total solar eclipse took place in August 2017. 

Prior to totality, cloud cover rolled in, restricting our view of the true solar spectacle. However, as totality was occurring, we did notice a drop in temperatures and wind. Any furry critters fluttering around my apartment complex took the darkened skies as a sign that nightfall was fast approaching, so our surroundings turned quiet rather quick.

Even though Rockford is expected to experience roughly 90% coverage of the sun by the moon, we will likely still see a subtle drop in temperatures if the right conditions are present. 

The partial eclipse will begin at 12:50 PM CDT, with max eclipse happening at 2:05PM CDT.

Any wind that is present will lighten up. As we know, wind is driven by a change in temperature which is driven by a change in pressure. The lack of sunshine allows surface temperatures to cool, keeping warm air from rising. That lack of rising motion likely leads to a drop in wind speed and a change in wind direction. To witness the full extent of the April 8th, 2024 total eclipse, you would have to take a trip to southern Illinois or central Indiana. Again, viewing will all depend on cloud cover!

Strong spring system to bring soaking rain, gusty winds

Friday's snowfall was quick to cave to March's sun angle and the above-average temperatures we saw over the weekend, allowing a lot of it to melt. 

Further melting is expected as the work week kicks off with a soaking rain and milt temperatures. 

Before leaving, make sure to have the rain gear on hand and keep it by your side throughout the day. A strong spring system over the Midwest will help swing a wave of rich moisture our way, allowing rain chances to increase after sunrise. 

This will make for periods of rain, which could fall heavy at times, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Highs will continue to remain mild, mainly due to a roaring southeasterly wind. We’ll peak in the low 60s, though peak wind gusts may range between 35-40 mph at times. As of this morning, there is no wind advisory for our counties, but many to our south have been placed under such advisory.

Severe weather potential is very low during the day, but increases slightly into early Tuesday morning as the low spirals close by. Rain by mid-morning Tuesday should be less intense, passing through in a more scattered fashion. When it is all said and done, most will be able to pick up 1"-2". 

Despite the downward trend in rain chances, winds remain strong, gusting up to 35 to 40 mph. This will leave highs in the 50s before a cold front cools us back into the 40s for Wednesday. After a day in the 40s, we quickly climb back into the 50s on Thursday and near 60s ahead of Easter weekend. A slim rain chances arrive Friday, with slightly higher chances moving in Saturday.

Portions of northern Illinois now under a Winter Storm Warning

As previously discussed, the placement of the front-enhanced snowband was going to be key into highest impacts and snowfall totals...

With it setting up over extreme northern Illinois, Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, Stephenson, Ogle, Carroll, and Jo-Daviess County have been upgraded to a WINTER STORM WARNING! 

Same expiration time, 4PM this afternoon! Whiteside County has been placed under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY!

Travel impacts likely into Friday afternoon as heavy, wet snow pushes through

Scattered snow continues to push in as we inch closer to the start of the morning commute. It has a little dry air to work through as dew points across N. Illinois are sitting in the low to mid 20s. 

As more moisture filters into the region, dry air issues should erode. By sunrise, we'll have a better depiction on where the frontogensis snowband will set up. If you recall from yesterday's discussion, the placement of this band will be key into figuring out where the highest impacts and totals will occur.

The expectation is for this band to set up very close to the Illinois/Wisconsin border, sitting on the Wisconsin side. Again, if it does end up wiggling southward into northern Illinois, that would increase our chances for more snow and travel impacts. 

Overall, plan on wet, slushy road conditions for Friday morning's drive to work and school, especially the farther north you go. Wet snow will remain likely into the early afternoon, with activity turning more scattered ahead of the evening commute. 

As a reminder, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 4PM for Winnebago, Boone, McHenry, and our three southern Wisconsin counties. For Stephenson and Jo-Daviess County, the advisory will expire a little earlier at 1PM.

A snow shower or two may linger into the early stages of the night. But as the clipper system exits the western Great Lakes, cloud cover will decrease into Saturday. Clearing skies and the cold air filtering in will leave overnight lows in the low 20s.

Saturday's chilly start will pave the way for another chilly afternoon as highs only reach the upper 30s. We get a little warmer come Sunday as winds tilt more to the southeast, pushing highs into the low 40s. 

Sunday also features a bit more cloud cover along with a chance for a wintry mix late. This is all in response to the storm system that will bring rain and even storm chances early next week.

Clipper to bring accumulating wet snow during Friday morning's commute

Thursday will be a textbook "calm before the storm" day as we await the arrival of Friday's troubling Alberta clipper system. 

Skies remain mostly cloudy for much of the day, with high temperatures peaking in the low 40s. On the plus side, winds won't be as much of an issue like they have been for the past 4-5 days.  

  

Earlier this morning, the National Weather Service placed counties hugging the Illinois/Wisconsin border under a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

For southern Wisconsin, Stephenson, and Jo-Daviess County, the advisory will run from 1AM-1PM Friday. For Boone, McHenry, and Winnebago County, this will run from 1AM to 4PM. 

 

The first half of the night will remain dry, with snow chances ramping up after midnight. Once snow begins, areas north of highway 20 will see several hours of wet snow which will likely last sunrise and into the mid-morning hours.

Areas mainly south of highway 20 won't see much during the first leg of the event. It won't be until the second batch of snow showers form where areas along and south of the highway will be begin to see a higher chance for snowfall.

If you have to be out for the morning commute, make sure to add a little extra time for travel.

Precipitation looks to be out of here Friday afternoon, leaving most who live in between I-88 and the IL/WI border in the 1"-4" range. Areas west and north of the Rockford metro have a much higher opportunity to see 4+" of snow, all depending on the placement of what's called a frontogenesis band. 

Embedded in this band are the heaviest snowfall rates (1.5" or higher), which lead to higher impacts and totals. Also mentioned is the potential for thundersnow. For the most part, guidance placed this band over our southern Wisconsin counties. HOWEVER, if this band were to shift slightly south, that would heighten the impacts for our far northern Illinois counties. Once Friday's clipper system moves out, we'll cool down for Saturday. Expect highs to only reach the upper 30s.

Winds remain breezy as northern Illinois's next snow chance inches closer

Hats have been flying and garbage cans have been toppling over as we haven't seen much of a break from gusty winds this week.

Yesterday marked the second time in 4 days where the Rockford Airport came in with a peak wind gust at or above the 40 mph mark. Now on the flip side, yesterday's warm southwesterly wind did help bring some of our locales into the low 60s.

A pair of cold fronts will help continue this gusty stretch into our Wednesday. However, it will be a much cooler wind out of the northwest. 

This will not only limit high temperatures to the upper 30s, close to 40°, but it will also keep wind chill values in the 20s. All in all, dress warmly but also have a pair of sunglasses as plenty of sunshine is also on the table for today.

Today's gusty wind will ease up during the evening hours, leaving winds light for tonight. We do see them shift to the northeast, allowing low temperatures to fall back into the low 20s by daybreak. 

Clouds are also expected to increase, leaving us under a mostly cloudy sky for Thursday. This will have no impact on our temperatures climb as highs will once again peak near the 40° mark.

From there, a potent clipper system diving in from Canada will bring our next chance for precipitation, mainly in form of wet snow. Snow becomes likely prior to the morning commute, transitioning to a light wintry mix by mid-morning.

Forecast models have been placing the surface low right over I-80, which would put areas along and north of highway 20 under the greatest potential for accumulation snow. It's in these areas where 1"-3" totals will be likely, with isolated 4" totals somewhere across southern and central Wisconsin. Of course, any shift in the storm's track could shift the axis of heavier snow in either direction, so this forecast is indeed subject to change. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s, close to 40°, falling back into the upper 30s for Saturday.

Tornado Myths: Tornadoes cannot cross bodies of water

With tornadoes come a lot of believable myth such as they stay away from highly populated areas or mobile homes attract tornadoes...

All are false by the way. But once such myth was busted not once, not twice, but three times during the severe weather outbreak last Thursday. 

The myth, that areas around rivers, bodies of water, or mountains are spared from tornadoes. Last Thursday, a tornado formed in Indiana, crossing the Ohio River THREE TIMES during its lifespan. 

This tornado would be given an EF-2 rating by the National Weather Service in Louisville, KY. 

What should you take away from this?  Tornadoes can INDEED cross rivers, touch down in the mountains, roar through valleys, and hit highly populated areas. In other words, tornadoes can occur anywhere if atmospheric conditions are favorable. 

Say it ain't snow? Next snow chance arrives after seasonal switch

A wind shift to the northwest left temperatures on St. Patrick's Day in the upper 30s. 

Relative to average, this landed 7° below our average high for March 17th, marking Rockford's first below average day since February 24th. 

Chilly northwest flow is expected to dominate a good chunk of the new work week, leaving temperatures below average for the most part.

The only day of warmth comes Tuesday, which coincides with the spring equinox. A brief period of southwesterly flow will push highs into the low 50s under partly cloudy skies. 

A cold front then looks to come through during the late-morning and early afternoon time frame, quickly shifting winds back to the northwest. 

This will leave highs in the upper 30s and low 40s for the remainder of the work week. 

Now, Rockford's last measurable snowfall came on February 23rd where the airport picked up 1.0". Why do I bring that up? Unfortunately, this week's chilly trend will set the stage for the Stateline to see it's next chance for measurable snow. 

This comes in the form of a clipper system which is shown sliding into the western Great Lakes Thursday evening into Friday morning. Right now, it looks like the highest chance for accumulations will be along and north of I-88, up into S. Wisconsin. But that will be something to monitor as we inch closer to the event itself.

Wintry weather returns as Spring begins

 

After several record high temperatures were reached in February and early March, our pattern turns a little more winter-like as we move into the Spring season.

For the rest of Sunday evening skies will remain mostly cloudy with a few scattered snow flurries from time to time. Gusty northwest winds will ease some through the evening as overnight lows fall into the low to mid 20s.

Temperatures Monday will also fall below average (average high is the upper 40s) reaching only the upper 30s for the afternoon. As the cooler air remains in place aloft it'll help build a little instability during the afternoon. This will likely lead to skies turning partly to mostly cloudy once again. A few flurries can't be ruled out during that time as well, but no accumulating snow can be expected.

Winds will turn back to the west and southwest Tuesday bringing temperatures back into the mid-50s for the afternoon. This will likely be our warmest day out of the next seven. Quiet conditions can be expected going into Wednesday but a cold front early in the day will help hold temperatures in the low 40s.

By late week a quick moving upper-level disturbance will race southeast, crossing the Midwest late Thursday into Friday. Colder air associated with the system is likely to bring a period of wintry weather to the Stateline. For some, this could include some accumulating snowfall through Friday morning. For others, a little more of a mix or a few rain showers. This could cause some minor impacts for the commute Friday morning.

The overall pattern through the end of the month is likely to feature below average temperatures and above average precipitation. This doesn't necessarily mean all precipitation will fall in the form of snow - remember our average high is in the upper 40s now and by the end of the month the average high is in the low 50s. But it doesn't look like we'll be seeing the 60s or 70s any time soon.

Hold on to your Shillelaghs! Gusty winds settle in for PaddyFest

Thankfully, the Stateline didn't have to deal with the potential for severe weather after such a soggy and gloomy start to our Thursday.

In even better news, yesterday's active weather isn't expected to carry on into our Friday. High pressure sliding in will allow sunshine to make a quick return to round out the work week. Even with a cool northwesterly wind in place, expect temperatures to peak in the low to mid 50s. 

Winds become the big story for Saturday. A cold front sliding in from the northwest will tighten the pressure at the surface, allowing winds to increase. 

Between 10AM-5PM, west-northwest winds could gust up to 30-35 mph at times. If you have Paddyfest on your schedule for tomorrow, make sure to hold on to any St. Patty's day decor!

Cloud cover will also increase early on, leaving skies partly to mostly cloudy for the afternoon. Despite the the additional cloud cover and wind change, highs should still peak in the upper 50s. 

Temperatures will then take a tumble for St. Patty's Day itself, leaving highs in the low 40s. A disturbance shifting through late Sunday into early Monday may have enough lift for a flurry or snow shower. An area of high pressure to the west will then dry our weather pattern out for the start of next week!

Heavy rain likely during the morning commute, severe threat lower

Two robust areas of showers and thunderstorms are moving across Illinois this morning...

The first is positioned north of the warm front and is literally lined up with I-80. The second is in the form of what we can an M.C.S or a Mesoscale Covective System which is the line of storms that extend from Quincy to the Quad Cities. 

I'll start with the good news, most of the more robust thunderstorm activity will remain south of the region, hence the watch to our south. Any storm that manages to track north of I-88 will likely encounter cooler air, allowing it to weaken. On the flip side, we're still in for some heavy rainfall and even small-sized hail during the morning commute hours. To be prepared, make sure to have the rain gear as well as giving yourself extra time for travel.

Occasional showers and storms will continue to be a possibility into the late-morning hours, with a sizable break to follow during the afternoon.  

As we've discussed on multiple occasions this week, the position of a warm front was the big uncertainty with the afternoon and evening threat. As it stands this morning, it looks like the warm front will remain south of I-80, keeping winds off of Lake Michigan for the entirety of our Thursday.

This results in a much lower threat for general and even strong to severe storms. In their early-morning outlook, the Storm Prediction Center shifted the level 2 Slight Risk south, leaving areas along and south of highway 20 under a level 1 Marginal Risk. With that being said, keep an eye on things later today. 

From there, scattered showers and an isolated storm or two will remain a possibility into the early stages of Friday morning. As today's rain-maker pulls away, clouds should give way to a decent amount of sunshine by the afternoon, leaving highs in the low 50s. A parade of cold fronts will march through the area over St. Patrick's Day weekend, cooling highs into the 40s into next week.