Heavy rain likely during the morning commute, severe threat lower

Two robust areas of showers and thunderstorms are moving across Illinois this morning...

The first is positioned north of the warm front and is literally lined up with I-80. The second is in the form of what we can an M.C.S or a Mesoscale Covective System which is the line of storms that extend from Quincy to the Quad Cities. 

I'll start with the good news, most of the more robust thunderstorm activity will remain south of the region, hence the watch to our south. Any storm that manages to track north of I-88 will likely encounter cooler air, allowing it to weaken. On the flip side, we're still in for some heavy rainfall and even small-sized hail during the morning commute hours. To be prepared, make sure to have the rain gear as well as giving yourself extra time for travel.

Occasional showers and storms will continue to be a possibility into the late-morning hours, with a sizable break to follow during the afternoon.  

As we've discussed on multiple occasions this week, the position of a warm front was the big uncertainty with the afternoon and evening threat. As it stands this morning, it looks like the warm front will remain south of I-80, keeping winds off of Lake Michigan for the entirety of our Thursday.

This results in a much lower threat for general and even strong to severe storms. In their early-morning outlook, the Storm Prediction Center shifted the level 2 Slight Risk south, leaving areas along and south of highway 20 under a level 1 Marginal Risk. With that being said, keep an eye on things later today. 

From there, scattered showers and an isolated storm or two will remain a possibility into the early stages of Friday morning. As today's rain-maker pulls away, clouds should give way to a decent amount of sunshine by the afternoon, leaving highs in the low 50s. A parade of cold fronts will march through the area over St. Patrick's Day weekend, cooling highs into the 40s into next week.