Cloudy right now; Storms possible later?

12:15pm Update:  A few showers moving through along with the cloud cover has helped to stabilize our atmosphere, decreasing our severe weather potential for this afternoon.  Greatest severe weather threat remains east of the Rockford area where the sunshine has helped further destabilize the atmosphere.


Showers currently moving through eastern Iowa this morning will continue to push across the Mississippi River, although the line seems to be weakening some.  A strong area of low pressure sits in northwest Minnesota with a trailing cold front extending south through central Iowa.  This cold front will move across southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the afternoon and could be the focus for a few stronger storms later this afternoon and evening.  A slight risk still remains over south-central Wisconsin and north-central Illinois for today with a moderate risk across Michigan.  This is likely where the greatest instability will remain due to ample amounts of sunshine.  Warm, moist air continues to stream north ahead of the front as we've seen filtered sunshine so far.  The big question remains just where the storms will develop as the front moves through; either right overhead or to the east.  There could be a few showers that develop later this morning before the cold front pushes through.  With the front coming through I believe storms will probably form very close to the Stateline and then race to the east across southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois.  The main threat with any of these storms would be gusty winds as there isn't much directional shear (changing of the wind with height) because the main low is well to the north.  As always we'll be here and should anything change we'll let you know right here on the blog.