Tuesday/Wednesday Storm Update

Blizzard Warnings have been issued for northeast New Mexico, the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma along with western Kansas in anticipation of the next low.  While big wintertime snow is expected in those locations, our weather will feature a bit of everything - from a rain/snow mix, sleet, rain, freezing rain and possible snow.  A weak cold front will move through later this afternoon and stall just to our south late tonight.  This should help keep most of the precipitation south of the viewing are overnight.  The general track takes the low from west Texas today, southern Missouri and central/southern Illinois by Tuesday and then into Indiana by Wednesday morning.  This barely puts us on the 'cool' side of the storm as warm air is fed in from the south.  As a result, temperatures will be pretty critical as to just what type of precipitation falls during this time frame.

With temperatures falling below freezing tonight any moisture that would be able to creep this far north would likely fall as snow or a rain/snow mix early Tuesday.  Temperatures are expected to rise above freezing during the afternoon Tuesday so this should allow for any precipitation to fall as rain.  It appears as if a dry-slot (dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere) will move in on the southern edge of the low which could cut off the precipitation for a brief period into Tuesday evening.  The low will move just to our south sometime after midnight and continue northeast Wednesday morning.  This, along with better forcing in the mid and upper levels, will help generate precipitation again but by Wednesday morning temperatures will be either right at or slightly below freezing.  This could cause a mix of sleet/snow/freezing rain to fall by Wednesday morning.  If temperatures were to remain above 32° then some of this would melt and not likely accumulate.  Travel Tuesday night into Wednesday will become slick especially if we get a brief period of freezing drizzle/rain.  Total precipitation amounts during this period are not expected to be high but could be just enough to cause a few headaches.  If there is a quicker transition to snow Wednesday morning there could be some minor accumulations.  Temperatures during this whole process at the surface and above will be critical as to just what type of precipitation we receive and for how long.  Anyone with travel plans during this time should keep up with the forecast and we'll continue to provide updates right here.