As the East Coast continues to recover from Sandy, an interesting article caught my eye about the forecasting that went into the super storm. The article comes compliments of
The Washington Post and is titled, "The National Hurricane Center's strikingly accurate forecast for Sandy".
The link to the full story can be found
here, but here are some of the highlights:
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| Courtesy: National Weather Service |
-Five days before the storm hit, the NHC said southern New Jersey would be near the center of where Sandy made landfall. FIVE DAYS! A lot can change in five days, so this is pretty impressive.
-The average error in what the NHC calls "track forecasting" is about 138 miles for a forecast three days out. The track forecasting error for Sandy was 71 miles three days out from landfall.
-Within 48 hours of landfall, that error shrunk to 48 miles (the average is double that).
-Here's the important part: While there isn't an exact measure for this, the accuracy of the forecast most certainly SAVED LIVES. That's the whole reason we make these forecasts.
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| Courtesy: The Telegraph |
It's important to note that not every hurricane forecast is going to be as accurate as this one, but it does show how far the science of forecasting has come along, even over the last decade. Just imagine where we'll be in another ten years... so much for meteorologists always being wrong.
Great story, thanks for the link. If I remember correctly, Hurricane Katrina also had an extremely well-forecasted track about 5 days out from landfall (maybe more). In both instances the forecasting couldn't have been much better. Unfortunately, the forecast isn't the only factor people weigh in their evacuation decision. More work is certainly needed on the human side of things so we (as a society) can be more prepared and responsive to immanent threats.
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