Updated Winter Outlook Still Showing Uncertainty

Earlier today on the blog, we talked about a warmup in the short term forcast (The rest of November), but uncertainty in the December forecast. Well, the latest winter weather outlook from NOAA came out today... with few answers.

The Climate Prediction Center recently ended its El Nino Watch. An El Nino event (a warming of the waters off the Pacific coast of South America) can provide some clues as to what our winter will bring, but with the chances of one pretty much gone now, we have to go back to the drawing board.




Updated 2012 Winter Outlook

  The latest outlook puts the Stateline at an equal chance of above/below/near normal precip and temps. While it is unclear what type of winter we will see, we can make an educated guess.

Just from the numbers, this winter should be harsher than last winter. Last winter (Dec-Feb) we received 21.3" of snow, which is below the normal of 29.2" for a typical winter. It may not seem that much below normal until you realize last year was the first winter with below average snow since 2005-2006.

Temps were also abnormally warm... our average temp last winter was 30.2°, which made 2011-2012 the third warmest winter on record. Our average winter temp is 24.2°.

Right now, we're calling for a more "traditional" winter. That means snowfall should be right around 29" with seasonable temps. It remains to be seen if our snowfall could come in a few big storms, or many small snowfalls. More updates to come!