Active storms down south today and tomorrow

A stationary boundary stretching from the Plains into Missouri and southern Illinois has been the focus, especially in Missouri and Illinois, for showers and even a few severe thunderstorms Wednesday morning. 

Low pressure developing near the Oklahoma panhandle later today will interact with moisture from the Gulf and an upper level low bringing hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes from Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Arkansas.  Low pressure will continue to
strengthen Thursday with severe thunderstorms developing again in areas that will be dealing with strong thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.

For us, the surface front will lift close to northern Illinois but not quite make it.  In the upper levels, however, a warm front will sit right across the state line and this will help become the focus for showers and a few thunderstorms into Thursday afternoon.  The greatest threat for any significant rain or even hearing thunder will likely be late Thursday as low pressure moves into Iowa and near Dubuque, IA by Friday morning.  This track may draw in enough instability to get a few thunderstorms going into Friday morning.  Heaviest rainfall will also occur right along the surface front which will be more focused further downstate.  Closer to home, half an inch to three quarters inch of rain will be likely with most of that occurring Thursday evening into Thursday night.