Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Pop-up showers/storms possible later today

Storms earlier this morning in Wisconsin have since dissipated, however, the resulting outflow boundaries (little mini-cool fronts) linger across northern Illinois and just to the south. 

With the cloud cover thinning early this afternoon temperatures will once again rise into the mid and upper 90s.  With the rising temperatures it's possible a few mid to late afternoon thunderstorms may develop as the atmosphere reaches it's convective temperature and possibly interacts with these lingering boundaries.   The convective temperature is the temperature needed to generate thunderstorm development in the absence of a front; such as a warm or cold front.  As the air at the surface heats up...it rises.  If the air it's rising into is just as warm or warmer thunderstorm development is less likely to occur.  However, if the temperature rises enough to reach it's convective temperature those popcorn type storms develop.  Right now the convective temperature is in the upper 90s.  Currently, warmer air is moving in a few thousand feet above which would cause that number to go a little higher by late this afternoon.  I'm still going to keep the isolated storm chance for this afternoon and evening 

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