Afternoon weather update

As clouds continue to thin this afternoon the temperature will continue to rise through the upper 80s.  As those clouds thin the instability in the atmosphere will continue to rise ahead of a cold front currently stretching from south-central Minnesota into western Iowa.  It's that cold front that will trigger additional storm development later this afternoon and evening.  The majority of the afternoon the skies should remain quiet across the immediate Stateline. 

Thunderstorms will likely begin to develop within the next couple of hours from northern Wisconsin southwest into Minnesota and Iowa.  Storms that do form this afternoon will be capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rain.  As the storms progress east into the evening over the Mississippi River the threat will transition to more of a wind and heavy rain event into the overnight.  The amount of available moisture in the atmosphere remains a little over an inch, which is fairly high.  The Storm Prediction Center continues with a slight risk for strong to severe storms across Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin and the First Warn Weatherisk remains at a Moderate.

Here is the forecast radar from the National Weather Service's WRF model for 7pm tonight.  Most short-term, smaller scale models indicate an initial start time for storms around eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois to be between 5pm and 7pm with storms advancing east and impacting Northern Illinois after 7pm.  Individual storms that develop through the afternoon - even if they're west of the Mississippi River - will be capable of wind, hail and heavy rain.  A line of storms will likely begin to form as the afternoon/evening progresses and the sun begins to set lowering the threat for large hail, but keeping the potential for wind and heavy rain.  Be sure to stay up-to-date with the weather later this afternoon.  Meteorologist Brandon Arnold and myself will be tracking and monitoring the radar this afternoon.  Further updates will be provided right here as well.