Thursday, March 20, 2014

2014 spring outlook issued this morning

NOAA
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released their 2014 Spring Outlook Thursday morning and according to the meteorologists and hydrologists with NOAA, rivers in half of the U.S. are at risk for minor or moderate flooding this spring.  The highest threat could be in the southern Great Lakes due to above average snowpack and a relatively deep layer of frozen ground still in place.  They say that the continuation of winter weather, above-average snowpack, frozen ground and thick ice coverage on streams and rivers will delay spring flooding into April in the upper Midwest and eastward into New England.  How much the rivers flood will depend upon how much rain is received and how quickly the ice and snow melt.

According to Dr. Louis Uccellini, director of NOAA's National Weather Service, "This year's spring flood potential is widespread and includes rivers in highly populated areas putting millions of Americans at risk.  Although widespread major river flooding is not expected, an abrupt warming or heavy rainfall event could lead to isolated major flooding."

Closer to home, rivers at risk of flooding include the Mississippi and Illinois rivers as well as many smaller rivers and streams.
NOAA

Drought conditions are expected to persist and continue in California and the southwest.  An area that has been dealing with significant drought conditions through the majority of winter.

Temperature trends leading into spring suggest that below normal temperatures will continue for April, May and June across Montana eastward into the Great Lakes, while warmer than normal temperatures are expected for western parts of the U.S. as well as much of Alaska.

NOAA



Trends continue to favor below normal precipitation across the west, where the drought is expected to continue and worsen.  Unfortunately, there are no clear signals as to whether the middle of the U.S. will experience a higher than normal chance of seeing below, above or average precipitation.





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