Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Tuesday afternoon weather update: Tornado Watch until 10pm

10:40pm Update:  Rainfall is winding down area wide Tuesday night.  The Flash Flood Warning continues for Winnebago until 2am, and has been canceled for Ogle County.  Now that the rain has ended, any flooding issues will continue to subside by daybreak Wednesday.  Area streams and creeks could still be running high, however.

The Milwaukee National Weather Service will be out Wednesday morning in Walworth County near Lake Geneva conducting a damage survey due to multiple reports of trees down.  As soon as we get those reports, we'll pass them along.

Have a safe night and remember if you come across any flooded roadways, now or in the future, to 'Turn Around, Don't Drown'!

(9:48:32 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 1 SE Savanna [Carroll Co, IL] law enforcement reports FLASH FLOOD at 06:00 PM CDT -- road washed out due to flash flooding se of savanna. time estimated from radar.

(9:38:08 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Capron [Boone Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.06 INCH at 09:20 PM CDT -- rainfall in 2 hours 42 minutes.

(9:16:17 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS LOT: Rockford [Winnebago Co, IL] emergency mngr reports FLASH FLOOD at 08:00 PM CDT -- reports of high water and drainage issues mainly across the northeast and southeast portions of the city with cars floating in the standing water.



9:05pm Update: Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Walworth County in Wisconsin until 9:30pm.  Wind gusts to 60 mph and heavy rainfall possible.  Remain indoors and away from windows.





Tornado Watch canceled for Winnebago, Ogle, Boone, Lee and DeKalb counties.  Continues for Rock, Walworth and McHenry counties. 

Here are a few rainfall totals so far Tuesday evening










****Tornado Watch canceled for Green County in Wisconsin****

(7:24:24 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: N Davis [Stephenson Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.00 INCH at 06:30 PM CDT -- 1 inch of rain in 10 minutes.

(7:24:24 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 2 WSW Chadwick [Carroll Co, IL] cocorahs reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.25 INCH at 06:30 PM CDT -- in past 75 minutes. nearby creek out of its banks.

(7:24:24 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: Shannon [Carroll Co, IL] broadcast media reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.45 INCH at 07:15 PM CDT -- storm total. weather watcher report relayed by media.

(7:15:51 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 5 NW Lanark [Carroll Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M2.90 INCH at 07:15 PM CDT -- rainfall in past 1 hr 45 min.

****The Tornado Watch has been canceled for Carroll, Whiteside and Stephenson counties*****



A Flash Flood Warning has now been issued for Winnebago and Ogle counties until 2am.  Rainfall amounts of 2" to 3" have fallen in the warned area, with another 1" to 2" of rainfall likely.  Thunderstorms are very slowly lifting northeast, only enhancing the flooding threat across north-central Illinois.  This is turning into a serious flooding issue.  Remember to NEVER drive through a flooded roadway.




(6:57:57 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS DVN: 4 ENE Freeport [Stephenson Co, IL] trained spotter reports HEAVY RAIN of M1.60 INCH at 06:56 PM CDT -- total from 6 to 645 pm. over 1 inch in first 20 minutes.

(6:47:08 PM) nwsbot: Local Storm Report by NWS MKX: 1 E Juda [Green Co, WI] trained spotter reports TSTM WND GST of M51 MPH at 06:35 PM CDT --

6:45pm Update: A line of stronger storms extends from Monticello down to near Rockton.  Wind gusts to 50 mph and pea sized hail are possible.  Heavy rainfall will continue to remain the biggest threat.


 6:00pm Update: Rainfall totals nearing three inches are very well possible with storms currently moving through.  Very high moisture content in the atmosphere nearing two inches will allow for the heavy rain threat to continue through 9pm.



5:50pm Update:  A Flash Flood Warning has been issued for Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside counties until 11:45pm.  Radar estimates of over two inches of rain has fallen in those areas, with an additional one to two inches of additional rainfall expected.  This is developing into a serious situation.  Remember to NEVER drive through a flooded roadway.

 
5:40pm Update:  As of right now there are no current warnings for the area, but storms in northwest Illinois in southern Jo Daviess and Carroll counties are nearing 40,000ft.  Heads up for small hail and gusty winds.  Very heavy rainfall will likely cause ponding on the roadways as well.  Look for the heaviest of the storm to be near Freeport within the next 20 minutes and Rockford by 6:30pm.
 
 
McHenry County has now been added to the Tornado Watch until 10pm. 

A Tornado Watch has been issued for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin through 10pm this evening.  As low pressure moves northeast from Iowa to Minnesota this evening, storms currently over eastern Iowa and west-central Illinois are expected to increase and be pulled northeast by tonight.

Cloud cover through the morning and early afternoon has limited the available energy across far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Less cloud cover and more sun in west-central Illinois and far eastern Iowa has caused the instability to increase over the past couple of hours.

Right now, the radar over the immediate Stateline is quiet.  Storms continue to develop to the south and west.  Earlier, there was a tornado warning for Jones County, IA as a tornado was reported there.  Our tornado threat is low, but it's not zero.  If we were to get thunderstorms (which we likely will), the greatest threat from them would be damaging wind gusts.

The surface low pressure will move from northwest Iowa into southern Minnesota tonight.  At the same time, an upper level low will move northeast out of the central Plains through Missouri and into northwest Illinois between 5pm and 8pm.  It's with that low that our storm threat will increase.  As the low approaches from the southwest the shear, or spin, in the atmosphere will increase.  Even though the instability - or CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) won't be overly high, the increase in shear may be enough to sustain any threat for severe thunderstorms this evening.  The storms currently in northeast Iowa will slide through northwest Illinois (Carroll, Jo Daviess and far western Stephenson counties by 5pm).  Storms currently in west-central Illinois will move closer after 7pm.

If you do have any plans for this evening, make sure you keep a watchful eye to the sky and radar.  We'll continue with updates as we head through the evening, so be sure to keep checking back.

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