Heavy rain threat possible Tuesday

A strengthening low will move out of Texas later today and into northern Missouri by Tuesday night.  As it does moisture will be pulled into this system producing a swath of very heavy rainfall from the southern Plains northeast into the Great Lakes.  The image on the left is from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center  and highlights northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin with about 2" to 3" of rain ending Wednesday morning.  The track of the low will play a big factor into where the heaviest rain occurs.  Any little deviation will cause the heavier rain band to shift either further north or south.  The development of this low and track will be something that we'll watch throughout this morning and afternoon.  Even though heavy rainfall is expected the potential for any type of flash flooding remains low due to the fact that we'll receive this rainfall in a matter of a couple days.

Raw output model data in fact show the rainfall ramping up throughout the day on Tuesday and leveling off by Wednesday morning.  The GFS is the highest with nearly 3" of rain falling by Wednesday morning while the NAM was indicating close to 2".