Severe Threat Next Week

This year has gotten off to a relatively slow start in the severe weather department across the country. That statement is especially true for Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin. We have not really entered a favorable pattern for severe weather in the Stateline yet. That could change next week. For those in the Southern Plains and Missouri Valley, it will change. A strong low pressure system and associated negatively tilted trough will eject out of the Four Corners region Monday. The low will rapidly strengthen and pull in plenty of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. That moisture-rich air will interact with cold air aloft back in the Rocky Mountains, in addition to very strong winds aloft, and create an environment highly favorable for severe weather.

The main area of concern for severe weather will be in Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and Missouri on Tuesday. However, the system will lift to the northeast into Wednesday, taking the severe weather threat with it. That will bring the chance of severe weather to areas in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, and Southeastern Oklahoma Wednesday into Wednesday night. That threat does not appear as robust as Tuesday's threat simply due to less favorable conditions. Nonetheless, a legitimate and possibly significant severe weather event is a good possibility on Wednesday.

The northern extent of the severe weather will be determined by where exactly the low and its associated warm front track. If that front ends up over or just north of the region, we will be in the "warm sector" of the system. As a result, severe weather would be a concern. If we end up north of that warm front, we will be in the cold, stable portion of the system. That would mean highs in the 50s and no severe weather threat. At this time, models are leaning more towards highs in the 50s and lower 60s with the severe weather threat remaining just south of I-88 and the Stateline. It is something we will have to watch because if the models start trending that warm front further north, we could be dealing with a severe weather day next Wednesday with all forms of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, flooding) possible.