Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Unsettled Weather Next Week

This past week has been fairly quiet in the weather department but it looks like that might be changing going into next week as the jet stream will set up right across the Midwest.  This would keep the storm track through the western Great Lakes with our first system impacting us as early as Sunday.  While the majority of our computer models agree that there will be storm system early next week, there is still just a little disagreement as to the track it's going to take.  I guess you could use the phrase:  "The devil is in the details" at this point.   The GFS and GEM (Canadian model) develop a surface low pressure system late on Saturday and move it northwest of the Stateline Sunday.  This would keep us on the warm side and likely produce a good amount of rain Sunday and Monday.  The ECMWF (European model) develops that same low, but shifts it further south - mainly because it develops a stronger area of high pressure to our north while the other two are not as strong with the high.  If that were the case we could see either a mix of precipitation or snow during that time. 

As of now I'm leaning more towards the warmer with a chance of mixed precipitation forecast.  I feel that we might not get the colder air down far enough to push the low to the south because this weekend's temperatures aren't expected to dip much below the mid 30s.  Either way, the Climate Prediction Center does have much of the U.S. in above average precipitation next week and beyond.  Of course we'll continue to track this system, as it has a long way to go.

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