Saturday, April 14, 2012

Quiet Evening...Rainy Overnight...Stormy Sunday

8:15pm:  Eastern Iowa is currently being monitored for a potentail weather watch.  A bow echo has pushed through Des Moines, IA and may hold its own as it moves east.









7:30pm: A bow echo has developed south of Des Moines, IA right along the warm front and moving east/northeast.  Additional cells have developed in northeast Missouri and back in southeast Iowa.






Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Midwest and Plains this evening.  In fact, there have been over 35 tornadoes reported so far and I'm sure many more to come! 

A warm front draped across the Iowa/Missouri border will begin to lift north this evening and overnight.  Individual storms that formed out in western and central Iowa earlier this afternoon have now formed into a cluster of storms with the strongest of the cells along the southern edge; closet to the warm front.  As the front moves north, the rain will lift into northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.  Right now, it appears as if our western counties; Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside would see the rain first...roughly about 10pm or so with everyone else experiencing the rain after 11pm.  While no severe weather is anticipated moderate to heavy rainfall and small hail would be the main concerns.  Rainfall rates of over an inch per hour could be possible overnight.  These showers look to persist through Sunday morning as the front moves into southern Wisconsin.

Once the rain moves out by morning our attention will then turn to the potential for severe weather Sunday afternoon and evening.  The low pressure responsible for the outbreak across the Plains Saturday will lift into southern Minnesota by early afternoon Sunday.  Depending on how quickly we can get rid of the morning cloud cover, the atmosphere is expected to become unstable as warm, moist air continues to get pumped in from the gulf.  As a cold front moves through Iowa individual storms may develop either along or right ahead of the front.  Current indications are suggesting there may be enough wind shear to allow for some of the storms to rotate and produce a tornado or two; especially closer to the low.  Other threats would be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall.  Any individual storms that do develop would then form into a squall line in the evening and move east across north-central Illinois with damaging winds becoming the primary threat.  The front will pass after midnight Sunday ending any severe weather.

It's important for you to remain aware of the weather tonight and especially tomorrow.  We'll continue with updates on the blog as well as facebook and twitter.  The links for both are on the right hand side of this page.

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