Friday, April 13, 2012

Stormy weekend ahead; Strong to severe storms possible

The central and western U.S. remain unsettled as strong winds within the jet stream continue to fuel strong storms across the middle of the country.  A warm front lifting closer to the Great Lakes today will keep a few light to moderate showers in the forecast for this afternoon and evening.  Later tonight a storm complex is forecast to develop across Missouri and move northeast as the low level jet increases.  Thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall could be possible just to the south of Rockford overnight and into early Saturday morning.  Those storms should move east as the warm front, currently in western Iowa, moves into southern Wisconsin.  Another push of warm, moist air is expected to move in Saturday afternoon and this may allow for storms to redevelop across northern Illinois.  Meanwhile, a severe weather outbreak is possible in the Plains from Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and southwest Iowa as a dry line moves into the central and southern Plains.   If those storms hold together as they move east Saturday night there could be another storm complex that develops and lasts into Sunday morning.  The storm threat remains elevated for us on Saturday with hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall all possible.

An area of low pressure will move into north-central Iowa by late Sunday afternoon with a cold front extending southward.  Should we see storms early Sunday morning and should they clear out in time for us to maximize daytime heating, thunderstorms will redevelop along and ahead of the cold front as there looks to be enough instability and wind shear within the atmosphere.  Hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and even an isolated tornado are all possible Sunday late afternoon and evening.  A slight risk of severe weather does exists for both Saturday and Sunday.  It's important to stay up to date with the forecast this weekend.  Updates will continue on the blog, facebook and twitter through the weekend. 

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