Monday, January 11, 2016

Tale of Two Storm Tracks

With temperatures remaining below freezing through the middle of the week, any precipitation that falls will be in the form of snow.  First round of it coming through Monday night and the second round may arrive as early as Wednesday afternoon.  Each will bring minor accumulations with it, but continued cold temperatures.

By the end of the week, our focus shifts to a storm system still well off in the Pacific Ocean.  This storm will help shift our jet stream pattern from the frigid northwest flow that has brought us the below zero temperatures and wind chills, to possibly temperatures warming above freezing and even getting close to 40 degrees!  But it all depends on the storm track.

A couple scenarios could play out for the Thursday through Saturday time frame.  The first scenario keeps our jet stream pattern in what we call a 'split-flow'.  With the northern branch of the jet stream developing an area of low pressure and passing it the northwest of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin, with a secondary low developing to the south and moving into Indiana and Michigan.  This type of storm track would produce a rain to rain/snow mix, possibly as early as Thursday night before switching over to lighter snow Friday night into Saturday.

The second scenario would keep the southern low stronger, but bypass us a little further to the east shifting the heaviest snowfall east of Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin.

Following the weekend, it does turn cold again with the below average pattern sticking around through the end of January.

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