Friday, January 22, 2016

Temperatures Continue Rising

The bitterly cold arctic air that was around for a stretch of days is gone. After seeing a few days with highs in the single digits and lows below zero, our temperature trend has been going up. In fact, our expected high temperature on Sunday of 32° will be 28° warmer than our high last Sunday of 4°. So, if you are not a fan of the arctic air, the past few days have been much better. Looking upstream--to the west and northwest where our weather patterns originate and come from--there does not really appear to be much in the way of arctic air gathering. As a result, there will not be any fresh cold filtering into the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions for the foreseeable future.

Despite there not being any truly arctic air in the forecast, there is some cold air showing up on one of the two long-range forecast models we use. While the European model suggests 30's and 40's late next week, the GFS model is showing cold air with highs in the 20's and lows in the teens. Does that mean we will see temperatures in the teens and 20's? No. It means there is a possibility of seeing cold air next week, but with the disagreement among the models, it is difficult to say just how cold it will be. One thing we do know is that it won't be arctic cold.

Looking into the end of January and beginning of February, the Climate Prediction Center's outlook is showing a decent probability of seeing temperatures above average. This would suggest highs in the lower to middle 30's and potentially higher as we ring in February.

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