Friday, May 13, 2016

How Rare is May Frost?

We are tracking a cold front on Friday evening that is going to allow much colder air to filter into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The air will be coming straight from Canada and will also be accompanied by breezy northwesterly winds, making it feel even colder than the temperatures we are expecting to see. Saturday will be the coldest day of the weekend with temperatures only rising to near 52° after starting in the upper 30's in Rockford. A few locations may struggle to reach 50°, especially in Southern Wisconsin. The heart of the cold will arrive Saturday night in the form of low temperatures in the middle 30's. A few lower 30's cannot be ruled out, especially if enough clearing can occur.

With temperatures that low, we could be seeing a few areas of frost, especially if the aforementioned clearing occurs. Now, seeing temperatures in 30's during the month of May is not completely uncommon. It does happen. In fact, it happened twice last year. Thus, while it may come as a shock to your system, it is something we have seen before.

Looking back at climatological records, we have see a temperature at or below the freezing mark as late as May 27th. While we may not quite reach the freezing mark this weekend, that record goes to show that it can be even colder than what we're expecting. We have seen low temperatures in the 30's as late as June 21st! Now, let's hope we aren't dealing with cold of that magnitude by the time June rolls around! The good news is forecast models are bringing milder air into the area next week with highs in the 60's and eventually returning to the 70's by the end of next week.

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