It's been an interesting severe weather season, thus far

It's all preliminary, but here are the numbers of deadly tornadoes in 2011 running through Tuesday evening.  One very interesting note from this year is the number of people that have died just in the month of April, alone!  Now the storms that moved through Tuesday evening may add on to that once damage surveys are done.  But just to put this into perspective, there were only 45 people that died from tornadoes for the entire year of 2010!  Unfortunately, the vast majority of those came from the storms that moved through North Carolina and a lot of the fatalities were from people who lived in mobile homes.

2011 PRELIMINARY KILLER TORNADOES
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0829 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

## DATE CST LOCATION DEATHS A B C D WATCH EF CIRCUMSTANCE
-- ------ ---- ----------- ------ - - - --------------------
01 FEB 28 1235 FRANKLIN CO. TN 1 1 - - - WT031 EF2 01M
02 MAR 05 1000 ACADIA CO. LA 1 1 - - - WT039 EF2 01H
03 APR 05 0037 DODGE CO. GA 1 1 - - - WT098 EF2 01M
04 APR 14 1830 ATOKA CO. OK 2 2 - - - WT135 EF3 02M
05 APR 15 0057 PULASKI CO. AR 2 2 - - - WT136 EF1 02H
06 APR 15 1600 MARENGO CO. AL 1 1 - - - WT141 EF3 01M
07 APR 15 1855 GREENE CO. MS 1 1 - - - WT146 EF3 01M
07 APR 15 1915 WASHINGTON CO. AL 3 3 - - - WT146 EF3 03M
08 APR 15 2155 AUTAUGA CO. AL 3 3 - - - WT146 EF3 03M
09 APR 16 1300 MOORE-WAKE CO. NC 6 6 - - - WT150 EF3 05M 01V
10 APR 16 1400 HOKE-JOHNSTON NC 2 2 - - - WT150 EF3 02M
11 APR 16 1425 BLADEN CO. NC 3 3 - - - WT150 EF2 03M
12 APR 16 1515 BLADEN CO. NC 1 1 - - - WT150 EF2 01M
13 APR 16 1655 BERTIE CO. NC 12 12 - - - WT150 EF3 02M 03P 07H
14 APR 16 1710 GLOUCESTER CO. VA 2 2 - - - WT150 EF3 01M 01P
15 APR 25 1830 FAULKNER CO. AR 4 4 - - - WT205 EF? 04M
___ ___ _ _ _
TOTALS: 45 45 - - -
FATALITIES BY STATE:
AL07 AR06 GA01 LA01 MS01 NC24 OK02 TN01 VA02
FATALITIES BY CIRCUMSTANCE:
30M 10H 04P 01V

A = IN TORNADO WATCH
B = IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
C = CLOSE TO THE WATCH /15 MINUTES OR 25 MILES/
D = NO WATCH IN EFFECT
H = HOUSE
M = MOBILE HOME
O = OUTDOORS
P = PERMANENT BUILDING/STRUCTURE
V = VEHICLE
? = UNKNOWN
WS = SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH /NUMBER/
WT = TORNADO WATCH /NUMBER/
EF = ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE RATING

..CARBIN..04/27/2011
---------------------------------------------------------------
So with all the recent severe weather this month it may have you asking just what the rest of the spring and summer months hold.  You may remember I touched a little bit on this the other day.  Weekend meteorologist Eric Nefstead and I were talking and felt as if later this year could possibly be an active one for people in the Great Lakes and Midwest in terms of severe weather.  His reasoning:  the severe drought in the deep southern Plains and the cool and wet northern Plains. 

Yesterday we met with the meteorologists with the Chicago National Weather Service, along with fellow meteorologists in the area, to discuss just that; what does the rest of spring hold.

Currently, we are in the process of transitioning from a moderate La Nina this past winter to a weaker La Nina or even a neutral ENSO by late spring/early summer.  So just what exactly does this mean in terms for us?  The severe weather season typically starts in the south early in the season; March & early April.  This is because the jetstream, which you can think of as the highway for storms, sits along the southern states.  As the spring and summer months continue the jetstream shifts further north taking the severe weather with it.  We typically tend to see our severe weather season around June or even early July.  Believe it or not, I went storm chasing in Canada mid-July!!

Looking back at past La Nina events, or the climatology, we tend to see a cool pocket of air develop along the northern tier of the county with warmer than average conditions in the south.  You can almost look at the current conditions and see that this has, in fact, played out with the ongoing drought and heat in Texas and the cooler than average temperatures in the north.  As the jetstream begins to lift north within the next month or so, we'll likely see an increase in thunderstorm activity shift northward as well. 

Looking back at both 2008 and 2010 one of the meteorologists with the NWS pointed out that there was an above average amount of tornadoes that occurred throughout Illinois.  A lot of this season will depend upon just where that boundary between the cool and warm air sets up.  So far it has been in the south, and with a powerful jetstream this has lead to the record amount of tornadoes this month.  Now I'm not saying that we will see those type of severe weather numbers here, but climatology tells us that we could see an 'above average' storm season. 

Now is the time to be prepared! Make sure your family has a preparedness plan and most importantly a NOAA weather radio.