Weekend Severe Update

We will continue to update this page as we receive more information and data today and tomorrow.  Please continue to check back.

9:30 pm Update:  Severe weather continues to fire across northwest Iowa and southern Minnesota this evening where severe thunderstorm and tornado watches have been issued.  These were all forming to the north of the warm front and east of the low.  The storms will likely continue on their northeast movement and could move into central/southern Wisconsin later tonight.  Still not overly concerned with these in our area but will continue to watch their track for any southward development. 

2:00 pm Update:  The fog we experienced this morning will continue to lift through the afternoon and I do expect more sunshine to return as the day moves on.

Saturday: Warm front sits through central Illinois this afternoon as southeast winds continue to bring moisture into the area.  An area of low pressure currently east of the Rockies will continue to strengthen and move northeast into the Plains by this evening.  As it does the warm front will lift northward pulling the warm and humid air with it.  Far northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin remain in a slight risk for later this evening and overnight while a moderate risk has been issued further to the northwest.  I think storms will likely begin to develop across parts of Iowa and southern Minnesota later tonight.  The main threat for any severe weather should stay to our northwest but there could be a few storms that move across southern Wisconsin and far northern Illinois along the warm front.  With any of those that do develop, hail and wind would be the primary threats.  If any storms do form, they should be out of here by Sunday morning.

Sunday: As of this morning the moderate risk has been shifted further to the east and now includes all of the WTVO forecast area for Sunday late-afternoon and evening.  By Sunday morning the warm front will have lifted further up to the north allowing the warm and humid air to be in full force across the Stateline.  If we do see any cloud cover in the morning it should be gone by the afternoon which would help to destabilize our environment.  Winds will also be very gusty throughout the day from the south/southwest.  

Ahead of the main cold front there have been some indications that there will be a convergence line (like a mini-front) that will develop and help ignite storms during the late afternoon near or just west of the Mississippi River.  If this were to happen, storm cells would develop and likely become individual supercells along the convergence line.  Unfortunately, this would also enhance the tornado risk during the afternoon and evening.  Storms that form along these types of convergence lines typically don't merge together like they would along a cold front, so it's possible that we could see these individual storms, should they develop, for many hours.  IF all things come together the greatest risk for tornadoes would likely be towards the late afternoon into the evening hours - maybe later.  Another thing to note is that the storm motion would likely be quick because of the strong winds aloft so these storms would be moving very rapidly.  Also, we would have to watch for the potential for large hail and some damaging winds.

I want to stress that this will likely change as we are still 24 to 30 hours away.  Some things have already changed from yesterday and they will likely change again.  All the ingredients have to come together to get these storms going and if we are missing just one it could be a different scenario.  Please keep tabs of the forecast as we head into tonight and Sunday.  Now will be a good time to go over your severe weather plan with your family and be sure to have your NOAA weather radio.