An area of low pressure currently in the Pacific Northwest will continue to move east/southeast this afternoon and evening. As it does it will pull a warm front through the central Plains and into Iowa by Sunday morning. Thunderstorms will likely by ongoing along and ahead of the front by the time you wake up tomorrow morning. While these are not expected to reach severe limits, there is the possibility some of the stronger ones could contain heavy rain and small hail.
By Sunday afternoon/evening more storms could get going as the low moves into northeast Iowa and a cold front pushes east. Moisture ahead of the front will lift north with dew points possibly reaching the upper 50s/low 60s - although these higher values may sit just south of the immediate area. A couple things we'll be looking out for as the initial round of storms move out will be just how quickly we are able to see a return of sunshine. If the clouds break and we manage to see some sun during the late morning/early afternoon hours our higher severe threat could be realized as we'll likely see our instability values increase. If we don't see sun and remain cloudy the greatest threat for any severe weather will remain to our south.
Damaging winds, hail and even tornadoes could be possible with any of the storms tomorrow evening. As it looks right now the warm front will lift just far enough north and sit right along the Wisconsin/Illinois border. As the evening progresses any storms that do form will likely merge together and become linear as they quickly race off to the east by Monday morning. We'll continue to monitor the progression of the low throughout the rest of the day and into Sunday and be sure to keep you updated right here! Weekend meteorologist Eric Nefstead will have much more for you on the news this evening. - CK
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