A pattern change taking place this week will replace the 'cooler' weather we've had for the past couple weeks to above average temperatures for at least the first part of May.
Winds within the jet stream will turn a little more southwest allowing the warmth that has been bottled up across the central and southern Plains to expand north into the Great Lakes. Along with the warmth will come an increase in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Within the jet stream little disturbances (or mini-lows) will develop and move along a stationary front currently in central Illinois. Each little disturbance that moves through will pull a little more warmth and moisture northward with it.
Dew points will rise into the upper 50s/ lower 60s by Wednesday and Thursday almost giving the air mass a humid feel to it. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing by Wednesday morning along a warm front in Wisconsin. Cloud cover from those storms will spill south into northern Illinois which may limit just how warm we'll get during the afternoon; especially if we see little sunshine. A weak disturbance within the jet stream will move along a cold front out west and this could trigger a few storms late afternoon and evening Wednesday. Depending upon how much we warm during the day a few storms could turn severe. As that front moves closer to the Stateline another low will develop and pull it back north Thursday and then again Friday. Because moisture will be plenty this week any storm that does develop will be efficient at producing locally heavy rain. This threat will last into the weekend as that front sags across northern Illinois. In fact, it may be this weekend where we pick up on the heaviest of the rain. We do need the rain as the current drought monitor shows areas just to our south and west/northwest have been experiencing dry conditions lately. Just hopefully it remains spread out this week and not all at once.
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