Severe weather outbreak possible across the Plains this weekend

Enjoy the sunshine while we have it today because once we get into the weekend the sun may be hard to come by.

Winds in the upper level of the atmosphere will move from southwest to northeast as a strengthening trough of low pressure deepens in the west and a ridge of high pressure develops across the eastern U.S.  Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be in full swing as a series of low pressure systems develop in the base of the trough and lift into the Midwest.  Strong to severe storms will be possible today across parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas.  The threat for storms then shifts east tomorrow as a warm front and associated low pressure system move closer.  A few thunderstorms may be found here Friday into Friday night.  By Saturday, strong surface heating combined with copious amounts of moisture and increasing instability will potentially create an explosive environment for severe weather, including a tornado outbreak.  Already, three days out, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the central Plains in a moderate risk for severe weather.

Closer to home there could be a few stronger storms along a warm front that is forecast to move through Saturday and that's why parts of northwest and north-central Illinois are in a slight risk.  Another threat this weekend is the rainfall.  It's hard at this point to try and pinpoint where exactly developing thunderstorm complexes will evolve and move but parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois could end up with a healthy dose of rain.  The 5-day rainfall total (Thursday - next Tuesday) has roughly two to three inches rainfall accumulation.