Winter Outlook: No clear signs of what the upcoming winter will bring for the Midwest

Thursday morning I had the opportunity to participate on a conference call with NOAA regarding its release of the winter outlook.  Mike Halpert, Acting Director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, stated winter will likely offer very little relief in the drought across the southwest where drought conditions will either persist or begin to redevelop.  Drought has been ongoing across parts of the southwest and central/east Texas for nearly 3 years and while conditions have slightly improved over the past few months, drought is likely to redevelop during the winter.  Drought conditions are also likely to develop across parts of the southeast because below average precipitation is favored in these areas.  Above average precipitation will be found across the northern Rockies and Hawaii while equal chances, meaning we could either see above, below or near normal precipitation, is expected for much of the middle of the country.

Cooler than normal temperatures are expected across the northern Plains and Hawaii while above average temperatures are expected for the Southwest, South-Central, Southeast, Northeast and western Alaska.  Equal chances are also found across the middle of the country and the southeast.  This means southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois will have each 1/3 of a chance of either being cold, warm or average.  I know, not very promising for this winter. 

Since spring 2012, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have been near average indicating ENSO neutral conditions.  Climate forecasters expect these conditions to continue through the winter.  This means that neither La Nina or El Nino conditions are expected to influence the climate through the 2013/2014 winter season.

Mark Halpert says: 'It's a challenge to produce a long-term winter forecast without the climate pattern of an El Nino or a La Nina in place out in the Pacific because those climate patterns often strongly influence winter temperature and precipitation here in the United States.  Without this strong seasonal influence, winter weather is often affected by short-term climate patterns, such as the Arctic Oscillation and that is usually not predictable beyond a week or two.'  Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center had to rely more on long-term trends and climate computer models when assessing this upcoming winter.  As we look towards the winter months we will likely experience more 'changeable' weather rather than something that would persist for a long time.  This means the weather will likely be more up and down rather than staying cold or wet for a period of time. -CK