Potential Winter Mess On Monday?

That's the big question right now, but we won't know the exact answer until later this weekend.

Monday's storm system will bring some precipitation with it, but temperatures both on the ground and aloft will dictate whether we get snow, rain, ice, or some combination of the three. Here's what we look at when making our forecast:

When precip forms, it always begins as ice crystals. What determines precip type is the presence and location of temps above freezing between the clouds and the ground. The chart to the right does a great job of showing how rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow all form.

Here's where the challenge in forecasting this storm comes in. Most of the models have us extremely close to the freezing line aloft and ground temperatures just above freezing on Monday. A change of a few degrees could mean the difference between nothing but snow and a wintry mix complete with freezing rain.

That being said, the current forecast is subject to change. We'll call for a rain/snow mix on Monday with accumulating snow and the potential for some freezing rain and sleet. We won't know how much snow until we figure out if we get any rain or ice. Meteorologist Max Tsaparis will have updates as we go through the weekend. Just be prepared for a potentially messy Monday morning commute! -BA