Severe threat for the weekend

The past week has been pretty quiet across the region with very few locations recording any rainfall since last Sunday. This weekend is likely going to be a little bit different with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms existing Saturday night into Sunday. I would be shocked if any particular location stayed dry this weekend as this system looks to have plenty of moisture and energy to work with, especially slightly off to the south of the Rockford area.


Now, thunderstorms would be great because we are in need of some rainfall across the area. However, our thunderstorms may pack a punch and become strong to severe Saturday night and Sunday morning. That is not what we want despite needing the rain. Severe weather is never a good thing. Does it look like a severe weather outbreak? No. Will there be some stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms? Yes, in all likelihood for some areas.


The Storm Prediction Center down in Norman, Oklahoma has areas to the south and west of Rockford in a "marginal risk" for severe weather on Saturday and Saturday night. That means that there is a 5% chance of a severe thunderstorm within 25 miles of a particular point. That is the lowest risk category issued by the SPC. Further off to the west and southwest exists a "slight risk" for severe weather, which means there is a 15% chance of seeing a severe thunderstorm within 25 miles of a point. That is the next level up in terms of the severe weather outlook forecast. Therefore, they have a slightly higher probability of seeing severe weather in Iowa, West-Central Illinois, and Northern Missouri into Nebraska. Below is the map of the severe weather outlook for Saturday and Saturday night:

 

Those storms could affect the region overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, especially if you live off to the southwest of Rockford. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat with some hail also possible. Then, it looks as though we dry out in the morning and afternoon as a cold front moves into the region from the northwest. If we can destabilize--i.e., see enough sunshine break through the clouds--before the cold front arrives, then there could be some stronger storms Sunday afternoon. For this reason, the SPC has placed the entire region in a "marginal risk" for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. The are refraining from increasing the severe threat at this time because of uncertainties regarding the forecast, and if we are able to destabilize sufficiently. Nonetheless, severe weather is possible Sunday afternoon for just about everyone. Our risk could go up if we see more sunshine Sunday morning and afternoon. With this round, it appears as though damaging winds and isolated hail are the main threats.