Stormy Week Ahead

Good Saturday evening from the First Warn Weather Center! I hope you have had a great weekend thus far. We got a bit stormy earlier this afternoon, but we were still very hot with highs in the low 90's. We are mainly clear now and will remain that way tonight and on Sunday. We will fall to around 70F tonight before cranking up the heat tomorrow as we top out in the 90's again. But tomorrow could be the last day we spend in the 90's for awhile. Why is that? Well, it is because we will see a series of disturbances move through the Stateline next week. These will be bringing in bouts of showers and thunderstorms. Thus, do to the increased chances for rain and clouds, the temperatures will come down next week.


The period extending from Monday evening through Thursday afternoon could be wet and stormy. The best chance of those rain and storms appears to be Monday night, Tuesday and Tuesday night, possibly edging into Wednesday morning. Until a strong cold front associated with a deep area of low pressure well up in Canada passes through, we will remain in the unstable, and warm sector. This essentially means our winds will be from the south and southwest, and that there will be warm and humid air in place for the region. That is basically what the unstable/warm sector of a low pressure system and cold front is.


And, as long as we are geographically located within that warm sector, rain and storms are possible at just about any time. Additionally, because of the strength of the cold front, the Storm Prediction Center has the Stateline in a chance for severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday morning already. That is rare for them to issue severe weather outlooks more than 3 days into the future. Therefore, they are pretty sure that severe weather will be a good bet along this cold front as it treks eastward next week. For now, it looks as though it will be a damaging winds threat with some isolated large hailstones. Like always, we will keep you updated on that and post new information when it becomes available.


Once the front passes Wednesday, the chance for showers and storms drops significantly by Wednesday evening. I left an isolated shower/storm in the forecast Wednesday night and Thursday because one forecast model shows rain and one does not. But, the heaviest and most concentrated rain ends by Wednesday morning it appears. Temperatures will only be in the upper 70's to around 80F on Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday we may not break 75 degrees!