Weekend Outlook

The weekend outlook is not looking like a total washout, but there is the possibility of some rain in the forecast.  And where that falls depends on where a cool front settles heading into Friday night.

Ongoing thunderstorms in Minnesota will, for the most part, remain to the north.  However, the far southern edge of those showers could slip far enough south near the Wisconsin/Illinois border to bring us a passing shower or two for the morning commute.  An additional shower or storm remains possible through Friday afternoon, but again, coverage looks to remain below 30 percent.

Heading into the weekend there is the possibility of rain, and heavy rain at that, but the heaviest could completely bypass us to the south.  Once a cool front passes Friday night it will stall south of the area Saturday and Sunday.  If we remain on the north end of that boundary, our skies will remain cloudy holding temperatures down and likely pushing any of the heavy rain south near the Missouri/Iowa border.

If, however, the boundary is pulled north closer to northern Illinois the likelihood of rain for us will increase.  That would only be the case if low pressure developing in the Plains were to pull it back north.

With the latest drought monitor being released today, there has been an increase in the abnormally dry conditions across central and southern Wisconsin.  Why not more of northern Illinois?  There are eight authors who rotate week from week at the National Drought Mitigation Center.  Along with those authors, they seek out over 300 'local experts' from around the country who are a little more knowledgeable in things like local soil moisture, stream flow, etc.  They look at different factors such as time of year, soil type and soil moisture to put together the drought monitor.  It isn't necessarily based just upon rainfall deficit.  It's more of a subjective index.  The drought monitor is drafted every Tuesday, and then released every Thursday.  And I have a feeling that if we don't pick up much rainfall over the weekend, with a drier pattern looking to take shape next week, we could see the 'abnormally dry' conditions now in central Wisconsin extended a little further south.