Stormy night ahead

As the latest model runs have come in, it still looks like rain and thunderstorms are a good bet at any point after 3-5am tonight. A wave of rain will be moving towards our region from the west after initiating in Southeast Nebraska near Omaha. Once it arrives late Saturday night and very early Sunday morning, it could be raining for several hours before ending from northwest to southeast.


The areas that are at the greatest risk to see stronger storms and more rainfall are the counties to the south and east of Rockford. The forecast models are in very good agreement on keeping the heaviest axis of rain and storms near the Quad Cities, possibly up to Dixon and Clinton. Nevertheless, I think everyone will get in on some rain and thunderstorm activity as Sunday morning rolls around.

Once this batch of rain and storms exits the region by late morning, expect some peaks of sunshine to possibly shine between the clouds. If we can get some sun to shine, that would increase our chance of seeing some showers and thunderstorms re-develop in the afternoon and potentially evening as the cold front approaches from the northwest. However, if we stay moderately stable (i.e., no sunshine through the morning and afternoon), then the chance of seeing those PM showers and storms decreases. Nonetheless, I am keeping a 30%-40% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the day on Sunday because I think the cold front will supply enough lift to generate at least some showers and storms across Southern Wisconsin and Northern Illinois.