Brief pattern change brings temperatures back below average

 

The first week and a half of February has recorded well above average temperatures, making February (month-to-date) the warmest on record with an average temperature of 37.5 degrees.

When looking back to the beginning of Meteorological Winter (December 1st to February 11th) the average temperature has been 31.0 degrees, making it the second warmest winter to date on record, following the winter of 1931-32.

The above average trend is set to continue for at least another couple days, but a pattern change by the end of the week will briefly bring temperatures back down closer to average. For the remainder of Monday night, a few clouds will pass through the region as a cold front sweeps across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. The front comes through dry, only shifting the southwest wind to the northwest Monday night.

Temperatures Monday warmed into the middle and upper 40s and will fall into the mid-20s overnight. Areas of frost will be likely. While slightly cooler Tuesday, afternoon temperatures will still warm close to 40 degrees.

Cloud cover increases as of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes late Wednesday night and Thursday. Ahead of the low, southerly winds Wednesday night will hold overnight lows in the 30s. Rain showers will develop as a result. Colder air wrapping in on the backside of the low Thursday morning may be just enough to allow for a brief mix of rain and snow, or a quick transition over to just light snow showers. Accumulations, should there be any at all, are expected to be minimal. 

Winds increase from the northwest Thursday with temperatures remaining in the mid-30s. Colder air settles in briefly which will cause afternoon temperatures Friday and Saturday to fall into the low 30s. Snow showers will also be possible Friday as another low moves through the Midwest. The cold air in place may be just enough to allow any snow that comes down to stick on some surfaces.

The cool down will brief, however, as temperatures are expected to warm back into the 40s by next weekend.