Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Record warmth, severe storms, snow all likely in the next 24 hours

If you thought 60s was a lovely gift, mother nature threw a 70-degree day our way Monday. 

Officially, Rockford peaked at 73°, which shattered our daily record high as well as our all-time record high for the month of February.

Guess what? There's more where that came from. If your morning routine takes you out the door early, you'll notice how much warmer it feels. 

Temperatures prior to sunrise are sitting in the upper 40s and low 50s, which is a whopping 15°-25° warmer than our "out the door" temperatures Monday. In a similar fashion to Monday, partial sunshine and southwest winds will allow highs to peak in the low to possibly mid 70s this afternoon. Our forecast high is 74°, which would shatter our daily record high and the all-time record high set yesterday. That's extremely impressive.

Unlike Monday, wildfires won't be a concern. With that being said, the concern does shift to the potential for strong to severe storms this evening. 

The Storm Prediction Center continues to keep the southeastern half of the viewing area (areas south and east of Rockford) under a level 2 slight risk. Those north and west of the Rockford metro, minus Jo-Daviess County and half of Green County, remain under a level 1 Marginal Risk. 

An area of low pressure swinging into northern Illinois will result in two rounds of storms late this afternoon into the evening. 

The first is associated with a pseudo-dryline, or a boundary that separates the moist and dry air. Dryline boundaries are more known for being classic supercell producers in the central and southern plains. This threat will primarily be focused to our south and east in areas south of Chicago. 

The second round, which may be more local, will spark up along the associated cold front. As we've discussed yesterday, limiting factors such as the capping inversion as well as moisture may limit our thunderstorm potential this evening. If we do manage to see storms pop up, large hail and a tornado or two will be the biggest concerns. 

Post-cold front, temperatures plunge into Wednesday, landing in the low 20s. Along with the incoming cold comes a chance for scattered snow showers, which should only last into sunrise. 

A rather gusty northwesterly wind will limit highs to the upper 20s Wednesday afternoon. Believe it or not, there is some good news with the upcoming cool down. It's only brief as highs will return to the 40s and 50s to round out the current work week.

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