From storms to heavy snow: Timing out Sunday's wild weather

 From rain and storms to snow and white-out conditions: we could be in store for all of the above Sunday. Yet another strengthening low pressure system will slide our way late this weekend, first bringing the potential for heavy rain and storms Sunday morning. Heavy snow will be likely across Central and Northern Wisconsin throughout Sunday morning.

There will be some pockets of dry time between waves of rain Sunday morning, allowing temperatures to reach into the mid-50s. This sets the stage for some strong storms, however. Dynamics in the atmosphere are strong enough that even a sliver of storm energy locally may produce strong to severe storms with damaging wind gusts as the main threat. A Level 1/5 Marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center already reaches up to most of the Stateline with a rare Day 3 Enhanced risk downstate and in parts of Indiana.

Pockets of rain with a few embedded storms remain possible through the afternoon, but colder air will quickly filter in behind the passing low pressure system. Most in the Stateline will flip over to a wintry mix between 6-10PM, with a quicker transition across Southern Wisconsin and Northwestern Illinois. The pink color indicates where we could see some very heavy sleet as well. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out during this time either, as the Southern end of this precipitation field will likely be producing a damaging squall line of storms in Central Illinois into Indiana Sunday evening and Sunday night.

Once we get beyond 10PM-12AM, all the Stateline will be likely seeing all snow as the precipitation type. This also comes with some stronger winds from the Northwest, possibly gusting to 45 mph at times. That will lead to extremely limited visibility and possibly near white-out conditions at times early Monday morning. Scattered snow showers will gradually taper off through Monday afternoon, but blowing and drifting snow remains a concern through the evening.

A broken down timeline shows the windows for different precipitation Sunday. Sunday morning and afternoon will bring pockets of heavy rain with some embedded storms and a risk for some damaging winds. Sunday evening will begin the switch to a wintry mix, including the potential for heavy sleet in the evening then heavy snow after 10PM-12AM. Visibility will be extremely reduced once precipitation flips over to snow. Monday keeps the wind and resulting blowing snow, but new snow will wind down.

Still a bit too early for snow totals, but sleet and rain on the Southern edge of this storm will eat into forecast totals quite a bit. I advise not to take extreme model totals you see on social media as gospel and continue to remain focused on impacts over totals. Rain quickly flipping to a mix and snow with plummeting temperatures will lead to poor road conditions. Regardless of how much snow comes down, white-out conditions Sunday night will result in hazardous travel through at least Monday morning.

A winter storm watch is already out for Southern Wisconsin and Northwestern Illinois for this potential of hazardous travel. Winter storm warnings are in effect for much of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan's U.P. Be sure to make plans around this impactful system and avoid traveling Sunday night or early Monday if you can avoid it. Monday afternoon will see conditions slowly improve, but blowing and drifting snow will remain possible through the evening. Stay tuned for forecast updates, including potential snowfall totals as the forecast becomes clearer!