Warmer pattern could lead to a few stronger thunderstorms later in the week

 

Temperatures are expected to warm later this week, reaching the 60s by Friday afternoon. And it's not out of the question that a few locations could come close to 70 - which would be record territory for Rockford. But with the warmth will also come the threat for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be on the strong to severe side.

For the remainder of Tuesday night, skies will continue to clear allowing temperatures to drop back on either side of 30 degrees. Winds will remain calm through the night, and with plenty of moisture in the low levels it's likely we'll see fog develop during the early morning hours of Wednesday. It may not be widespread, but locally dense fog will be possible. Skies will then cloud back over Wednesday afternoon, but this won't stop temperatures from rising close to 50 degrees.

Showers and thunderstorms that have been ongoing in central Illinois will begin to diminish overnight, leaving more scattered activity into the morning. Throughout the day we'll slowly begin to see more moisture lift north and eventually a few showers that could dot the skies during the late afternoon and evening. This will be as a weak area of low pressure and a warm front move into northern Illinois. As this occurs, there will be a slight increase in instability late Wednesday evening, and this could lead to a few embedded thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected. Scattered showers will continue through early afternoon Thursday with skies beginning to dry out Thursday evening.

A second warm front will begin to pull north Friday morning, reaching northern Illinois Friday afternoon. Behind the front an extremely warm air mass will arrive pushing temperatures into the 60s. But with the warmup will also come the chance for showers and thunderstorms, first centered around mid to late morning, and then again late Friday evening.

With the amount of warmth and moisture that'll be in place it's also possible that there could be a few stronger storms, especially Friday night. While the chance for strong storms appears low with the first round, it's not zero and we'll have to pay close attention to any storm that forms close to the advancing warm front. The next wave of precipitation will arrive with the system's cold front, moving in late Friday night. While this time period is not favorable for widespread severe weather, the amount of moisture and wind shear could allow for some gustier thunderstorms. The rain will come to an end from west to east as the cold front moves through Saturday, with a drier end to the weekend.

The Storm Prediction Center does have the entire Stateline outlined for at least a slight risk for a severe storm or two Friday, so that's a day we'll want to keep an eye on.