Warming up this weekend with an elevated fire risk

 After a chilly and breezy Friday, this weekend will bring a steady rise in temperatures back above average. From the low 20s Saturday morning, the afternoon will see highs push back toward 50. The surface high pressure responsible for the chill will slide overhead and past us to the East by then, turning the winds back around to the South and Southwest. Sunday's high temperature will climb even higher, reaching into the low 60s.

That Southwest wind could gust toward 20-30 mph Saturday afternoon, and even higher across Iowa and Minnesota. But moisture will lag well behind the increase in winds. There is still some uncertainty about where dew point temperatures will be in the afternoon, but relative humidity percentages will be close to or below 30% much of the afternoon.

That combination of stronger winds and low humidity will develop a risk for brush fires. Dry vegetation will burn easily, and the stronger winds could allow for fires to spread rapidly. Avoid burning outdoors Saturday! Sunday could also bring some fire danger, but conditions will be slightly better to prevent widespread risk for brush fires.

The fire risk is only elevated locally but will reach critical levels to the West. Even drier air with stronger winds will result in extreme fire danger across much of the Plains including Minnesota and Iowa. A Red Flag Warning stretches from Minnesota to the Texas Panhandle, signifying the higher risk for brush fires. That's not to say our risk isn't significant, but the more extreme risk will stay just outside of our area.