There were a few minor adjustments to the severe weather outlook for this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center did expand the Enhanced (level 3) risk northward, now extending it to the interstate 88 corridor. Areas north of I-88 are under a Slight (level 2) risk for scattered strong to severe storms. Areas up in southern Wisconsin remain under a Marginal risk (level 1).
A weak low-pressure system tracking across the plains will drag a boundary south, stalling it across the Stateline early this morning. Associated with the front will likely be an increase in cloud cover, along with the potential for dense fog.
As the boundary moves through, winds will from the southeast to the east-northeast, drawing in a cooler air mass, especially east of the area where onshore flow from Lake Michigan will enhance the cooling. As the front continues to sink southward, it will be come increasingly reinforced by these lake-driven winds. This will allow a sharp temperature gradient to develop, with highs warming into the upper 60s and low 70s south of the front, while areas north of the boundary remain in the 50s.
North of the front, moisture and instability will be
lacking, but it'll still remain high aloft (a few thousand feet above).
This means any storms that develop north of the front will be elevated
and pose a risk for large, possibly very large, hail.
Scattered storm chances should continue into the first half of the night with heavy rain potential lasting into early Wednesday. Be sure to remain up to date with the forecast throughout the day!
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