Friday could bring the season's first severe weather risk for much of the Stateline. There are three distinct windows for potential storm development, each with varying threats and coverage.
MORNING: The first window is centered around the morning, with widespread rain and a few embedded storms. Since these storms will be elevated, severe risk will be minimal with a main threat of small hail and heavy rain.
AFTERNOON: The afternoon is a bit more of a conditional risk. If storms develop, the environment will be primed for strong to severe development with all hazards possible. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado is also possible if a storm can attach itself to a passing warm front, enhancing the potential rotation. Storm coverage will be isolated in nature, meaning there will be many dry hours and dry locations at any given time.
EVENING/NIGHT: An approaching cold front will bring a renewed chance for showers and a few storms, with some gusty storms possible. The loss of daytime heating will weaken storms a bit, but a few strong gusts may be possible with some pockets of heavy rain.
The highest chance for storms will be in the morning, but the strongest storms will likely be in the afternoon or early evening. Main concerns throughout the day will be winds and hail, but the afternoon may pose a brief tornado risk as well. Any showers and storms will clear by mid-morning Saturday behind the passing cold front.
The entire Stateline is now under a Slight (Level 2/5) Risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The highest risks locally are for hail and wind, while the tornado and flooding threats are a little on the lower side. Storms may be possible throughout the day, but the strongest storms — should they develop — will be centered around the afternoon and early evening. Continue to follow for updates through Friday!
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