Another week, another strong storm system. That seems to be the story for the Midwest as the jet stream remains active with a trough in the west allowing low pressure systems to form in the Rockies and move out into the Great Plains, and undergo rapid intensification as they do so. The other piece to the puzzle is a "blocking high" off the coast of the Carolinas. That is keeping the ridge in the eastern United States, which is why the troughing pattern is remaining in place in the West. Once these low pressure systems move out into the Plains, they draw an abundance of moisture northward all the way to the Canadian border.
They also bringing a lot in the way of wind energy to the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley regions as they strengthen at such a quick speed. This system will be no different as winds turn gusty for several days next week in the aforementioned locations.
Another component of these strong storm systems is the threat for severe weather, particularly damaging winds. That was the case for the Stateline with last week's system as plenty of severe thunderstorm warnings were issued on Wednesday evening as strong winds plowed across the region. This time, though, the severe threat will likely remain well south of Illinois along the Gulf Coast into Arkansas. So that is the good news. The bad news is there will be more moisture for this system to work with, which spells out higher rainfall totals for us.
As of now, it looks like the heaviest rainfall will be just to our south in Southern Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas, but hefty rainfall totals can be expected here as well. I think we will receive at least an inch and a half of rain, with some locations recording over two inches by the time Thursday morning rolls around and the system moves well off to the northeast.
The take home point? Don't forget the umbrellas this week!
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